Climate Change and CO2 Effects on Productivity of Danish Agricultural Systems

SUMMARY Scenarios of climate change for Denmark suggest increases in annual mean temperature of 1 to 4°C by the end of the 21st century with an associated increase in rainfall of approximately 10%. The climatic warming and the associated increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration will increase the productivity of agricultural crops. The increase may be slightly higher for indeterminate species, such as grass and other fodder crops, compared with cereals and other determinate species, where the duration of growth depends on temperature and daylength. The full benefits of the climatic warming requires adaptation in crop management, which at the individual crop level means changes in sowing dates, i.e., later sowings for winter cereals and earlier sowings for spring cereals. Some crop substitution will probably occur. On dairy farms more cereals will be grown due to higher productivity of the grasslands, which frees up some land for grain production. On sandy loam and loam soils spring cereals may become slightly more favorable and winter cereals slightly less favorable.

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