GRAIN AS A TRADING COMMODITY IN SOUTHERN AFRICA / GRAAN AS 'N HANDELSKOMMODITEIT IN SUIDELIKE AFRIKA

It is a well known that not all trade in southern Africa is recorded. Recorded trade therefore gives a skew picture and this paper specifically attempts to estimate and investigate unrecorded trade in the region, using the grain market and the “grain trade ratio”. Unrecorded trade occurred in most southem Africa countries and no recorded trade is observed for South Africa during the period 1986–1991. This corresponds to the time when South Africa was politically excluded from formal trading in southern Africa. The grain trade ratio (grain trade as percentage of grain production) is decreasing. The paper examines why the trade ratio decreased when national policies emphasized local food production programmes, market liberalization and more open trade in the region.