Engineering seismic risk analysis

This paper introduces a method for the evaluation of the seismic risk at the site of an engineering project. The results are in terms of a ground motion parameter (such as peak acceleration) versus average return period. The method incorporates the influence of all potential sources of earthquakes and the average activity rates assigned to them. Arbitrary geographical relationships between the site and potential point, line, or areal sources can be modeled with computational ease. In the range of interest, the derived distributions of maximum annual ground motions are in the form of Type I or Type II extreme value distributions, if the more commonly assumed magnitude distribution and attenuation laws are used.

[1]  John M. Nordquist,et al.  Theory of largest values applied to earthquake magnitudes , 1945 .

[2]  B. Epstein,et al.  The Theory of Extreme Values and Its Implications in the Study of the Dielectric Strength of Paper Capacitors , 1948 .

[3]  河角 廣,et al.  Measures of Earthquake Danger and Expectancy of Maximum Intensity Throughout Japan as Inferred from the Seismic Activity in Historical Times , 1951 .

[4]  George W. Housner,et al.  Spectrum Intensities of Strong-Motion Earthquakes , 1952 .

[5]  Keiiti Aki,et al.  Some Problems in Statistical Seismology , 1956 .

[6]  H. C. S. Thom,et al.  Distributions of Extreme Winds in the United States , 1960 .

[7]  H. C. S. Thorn.  New Distributions of Extreme Winds in the United States , 1961 .

[8]  Emanuel Parzen,et al.  Stochastic Processes , 1962 .

[9]  M. V. Gzovsky.  Tectonophysics and earthquake forecasting , 1962 .

[10]  W. D. Mark,et al.  Random Vibration in Mechanical Systems , 1963 .

[11]  Jack Oliver,et al.  Seismic waves with frequencies from 1 to 100 cycles per second recorded in a deep mine in Northern New Jersey , 1964 .

[12]  M. Niazi.  Seismicity of northern California and western Nevada , 1964 .

[13]  Leon Knopoff,et al.  The statistics of earthquakes in Southern California , 1964 .

[14]  John H. Wiggins,et al.  Effect of Site Conditions on Earthquake Intensity , 1964 .

[15]  Emilio Rosenblueth,et al.  Probabilistic Design to Resist Earthquakes , 1964 .

[16]  C. R. Allen,et al.  Relationship between seismicity and geologic structure in the Southern California region , 1965 .

[17]  Cinna Lomnitz,et al.  Statistical prediction of earthquakes , 1966 .

[18]  C. Lomnitz,et al.  A Model for the Occurrence of Large Earthquakes , 1966, Nature.

[19]  D. Vere-Jones.  A markov model for aftershock occurence , 1966 .

[20]  Luis Esteva,et al.  Criteria for the Construction of Spectra for Seismic Design , 1967 .

[21]  Jack R. Benjamin,et al.  Probabilistic Models for Seismic Force Design , 1968 .

[22]  H. Emmerich.  Distribution of Tritiated Ecdysone in Salivary Gland Cells of Drosophila , 1969, Nature.