Evaluation of the effectiveness of accident information on freeway changeable message signs: A comparison of empirical methodologies

In this paper, we study the effectiveness of accident messages that are displayed on freeway changeable message signs (CMS). Motivated by the lack of empirical studies and the mixed results reported in the limited empirical studies, this paper focuses on the comparison of different aggregate analysis methodologies and their corresponding results, using the same empirical data set. We have two major findings. First, we find that the CMS accident messages do not seem to have any significant immediate effect on driver diversion based on our empirical data. Visible congestion, on the other hand, seems to be an important factor for driver diversion. Second, we show how the conclusion could have been if wrong methodologies were to be adopted. Methods that rely on correlation alone but not the timing of events (what we call correlation method) yield high correlation between CMS accident messages and driver diversion, which is typically and incorrectly interpreted as CMS accident messages being effective.

[1]  Moshe Ben-Akiva,et al.  A joint model of travel information acquisition and response to received messages , 2013 .

[2]  Baher Abdulhai,et al.  Impacts on Traffic Diversion Rates of Changed Message on Changeable Message Sign , 2008 .

[3]  B. Benson.  MOTORIST ATTITUDES ABOUT CONTENT OF VARIABLE-MESSAGE SIGNS , 1996 .

[4]  David M Levinson,et al.  Effectiveness of VMS Using Empirical Loop Detector Data , 2006 .

[5]  E. Molin,et al.  Travel information as an instrument to change car- drivers' travel choices: a literature review , 2006 .

[6]  Roberta Di Pace,et al.  The impact of travel information's accuracy on route-choice , 2013 .

[7]  Stephen H Richards,et al.  FIELD EVALUATION OF MESSAGES FOR REAL-TIME DIVERSION OF FREEWAY TRAFFIC FOR SPECIAL EVENTS , 1978 .

[8]  Song Gao,et al.  A rank-dependent expected utility model for strategic route choice with stated preference data , 2013 .

[9]  Gerald L Ullman.  Queuing and natural diversion at short-term freeway work zone lane closures , 1996 .

[10]  Asad J. Khattak,et al.  Modeling Revealed and Stated En-Route Travel Response to Advanced Traveler Information Systems , 1996 .

[11]  Woodrow Barfield,et al.  Statistical analysis of commuters' route, mode, and departure time flexibility , 1994 .

[12]  Jorge Ramos,et al.  Content of Variable Message Signs and On-Line Driver Behavior , 2000 .

[13]  Alan J Horowitz,et al.  Diversion from a Rural Work Zone with Traffic-Responsive Variable Message Signage System , 2003 .

[14]  Serge P. Hoogendoorn,et al.  Validation of a multimodal travel simulator with travel information provision , 2007 .

[15]  Mohamed Abdel-Aty,et al.  Modeling drivers' diversion from normal routes under ATIS using generalized estimating equations and binomial probit link function , 2004 .

[16]  Asad J. Khattak,et al.  Commuters' enroute diversion and return decisions: Analysis and implications for advanced traveler information systems , 1993 .

[17]  Chao Chen,et al.  The PeMS algorithms for accurate, real-time estimates of g-factors and speeds from single-loop detectors , 2001, ITSC 2001. 2001 IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems. Proceedings (Cat. No.01TH8585).

[18]  Curtis F Berthelot,et al.  Effects of a Smart Work Zone on Motorist Route Decisions , 2004 .

[19]  Mohamed Abdel-Aty,et al.  USING STATED PREFERENCE DATA FOR STUDYING THE EFFECT OF ADVANCED TRAFFIC INFORMATION ON DRIVERS' ROUTE CHOICE , 1997 .

[20]  Samer Madanat,et al.  ANALYSIS OF STATED ROUTE DIVERSION INTENTIONS UNDER ADVANCED TRAVELER INFORMATION SYSTEMS USING LATENT VARIABLE MODELING , 1995 .

[21]  Jie Yu,et al.  An Integrated Control Model for Freeway Corridor Under Nonrecurrent Congestion , 2011, IEEE Transactions on Vehicular Technology.

[22]  P. Nijkamp,et al.  Variable message signs and radio traffic information: An integrated empirical analysis of drivers' route choice behaviour , 1996 .

[23]  Reinhart Kühne,et al.  Evaluation of Compliance Rates and Travel Time Calculation for Automatic Alternative Route Guidance Systems on Freeways , 1996 .

[24]  Gerald L Ullman.  NATURAL DIVERSION AT TEMPORARY WORK ZONE LANE CLOSURES ON URBAN FREEWAYS IN TEXAS. INTERIM REPORT , 1992 .

[25]  Peter Bonsall,et al.  Driver response to variable message signs: a stated preference investigation , 1997 .

[26]  Conrad L Dudek,et al.  REAL-TIME DIVERSION OF FREEWAY TRAFFIC DURING MAINTENANCE OPERATIONS. ABRIDGMENT , 1978 .

[27]  Conrad L Dudek,et al.  Real-Time Freeway-to-Freeway Diversion: The San Antonio Experience , 1982 .

[28]  Donald L. Fisher,et al.  Use of a driving simulator to evaluate and optimize factors affecting understandability of variable message signs , 2004 .

[29]  Michel Bierlaire,et al.  Selected papers from the seventh Triennial Symposium on Transportation Analysis (TRISTAN VII). Special Issue of Transportation Research Part C , 2013 .

[30]  Mike McDonald,et al.  Effectiveness of using variable message signs to disseminate dynamic traffic information: Evidence from field trails in European cities , 2004 .

[31]  Adib Kanafani,et al.  Modeling the benefits of advanced traveler information systems in corridors with incidents , 1993 .

[32]  Emanuel Robinson,et al.  Deployment, Use, and Effect of Real-Time Traveler Information Systems , 2013 .

[33]  J Lappin,et al.  UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTING TRAVELER RESPONSE TO INFORMATION: A LITERATURE REVIEW , 2001 .

[34]  Adib Kanafani,et al.  A SIMPLE MODEL FOR ROUTE GUIDANCE BENEFITS , 1991 .

[35]  Lijun Sun,et al.  Empirical Analysis and Modeling of Drivers’ Response to Variable Message Signs in Shanghai, China , 2011 .

[36]  Youngbin Yim,et al.  LINK FLOW EVALUATION USING LOOP DETECTOR DATA: TRAVELER RESPONSE TO VARIABLE-MESSAGE SIGNS , 1996 .

[37]  Eul-Bum Lee,et al.  Automated Work Zone Information System on Urban Freeway Rehabilitation: California Implementation , 2006 .

[38]  Lianyu Chu,et al.  Evaluation of Effectiveness of Automated Work Zone Information Systems , 2005 .

[39]  Yao-Jan Wu,et al.  Impacts of Freeway Traffic Congestion on En-route Traveler's Diversion , 2010 .