Driver behavior formulation in intersection dilemma zones with phone use distraction via a logit-Bayesian network hybrid approach

ABSTRACT Use of cellular phone while driving is one of the top contributing factors that induce traffic crashes, resulting in significant loss of life and property. A dilemma zone is a circumstance near signalized intersections where drivers hesitate when making decisions related to their driving behaviors. Therefore, the dilemma zone has been identified as an area with high crash potential. This article utilizes a logit-based Bayesian network (BN) hybrid approach to investigate drivers' decision patterns in a dilemma zone with phone use, based on experimental data from driving simulations from the National Advanced Driving Simulator (NADS). Using a logit regression model, five variables were found to be significant in predicting drivers' decisions in a dilemma zone with distractive phone tasks: older drivers (50–60 years old), yellow signal length, time to stop line, handheld phone tasks, and driver gender. The identified significant variables were then used to train a BN model to predict drivers' decisions at a dilemma zone and examine probabilistic impacts of these variables on drivers' decisions. The analysis results indicate that the trained BN model was effective in driver decision prediction and variable influence extraction. It was found that older drivers, a short yellow signal, a short time to stop line, nonhandheld phone tasks, and female drivers are factors that tend to result in drivers proceeding through intersections in a dilemma zone with phone use distraction. These research findings provide insight in understanding driver behavior patterns in a dilemma zone with distractive phone tasks.