Geophysical applications of the Global Positioning System (GPS) require the capability to estimate and propagate satellite orbits with high precision. An accurate model of all the forces acting on a satellite is an essential part of achieving high orbit accuracy. Methods of analyzing the perturbation due to thermal radiation and determining its effects on the long-term orbital behaviour of GPS satellites are presented. The thermal imbalance force, a nongravitational orbit perturbation previously considered negligible, is the focus of this paper. The Earth's shadowing of a satellite in orbit causes periodic changes in the satellite's thermal environment. Simulations show that neglecting thermal imbalance in the satellite force model gives orbit errors larger than 10 m over several days for eclipsing satellites. This orbit mismodeling can limit accuracy in orbit determination and in estimation of baselines used for geophysical applications. Nomenclature A = surface area Cp = specific heat c = speed of light Er = energy emitted by a real body, summed over all wavelengths
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