qRT-PCR versus IFA-based Quantification of Male and Female Gametocytes in Low-Density Plasmodium falciparum Infections and Their Relevance for Transmission

Abstract Background Accurate quantification of female and male gametocytes and sex ratios in asymptomatic low-density malaria infections are important for assessing their transmission potential. Gametocytes often escape detection even by molecular methods, therefore ultralow gametocyte densities were quantified in large blood volumes. Methods Female and male gametocytes were quantified in 161 PCR-positive Plasmodium falciparum infections from a cross-sectional survey in Papua New Guinea. Ten-fold concentrated RNA from 800 µL blood was analyzed using female-specific pfs25 and male-specific pfmget or mssp qRT-PCR. Gametocyte sex ratios from qRT-PCR were compared with those from immunofluorescence assays (IFA). Results Gametocytes were identified in 58% (93/161) P. falciparum-positive individuals. Mean gametocyte densities were frequently below 1 female and 1 male gametocyte/µL by qRT-PCR. The mean proportion of males was 0.39 (95% confidence interval, 0.33–0.44) by pfs25/pfmget qRT-PCR; this correlated well with IFA results (Pearsons r2 = 0.91; P < .001). A Poisson model fitted to our data predicted 16% P. falciparum-positive individuals that are likely to transmit, assuming at least 1 female and 1 male gametocyte per 2.5 µL mosquito bloodmeal. Conclusions Based on model estimates of female and male gametocytes per 2.5 µL blood, P. falciparum-positive individuals detected exclusively by ultrasensitive diagnostics are negligible for human-to-mosquito transmission. Estimating the transmission potential of ultralow-density malaria infections informs interventions. Almost all infections with ≥1 female and male gametocyte per 2.5 µL mosquito bloodmeal, and thus with highest likelihood of contributing to human-to-mosquito transmission, were detectable by standard molecular diagnostics.