Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Accelerated warming and hiatus periods in the long-term rise of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) have, in recent decades, been associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Critically, decadal climate prediction relies on the skill of state-of-the-art climate models to reliably represent these low-frequency climate variations. We undertake a systematic evaluation of the simulation of the IPO in the suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models. We track the IPO in pre-industrial (control) and all-forcings (historical) experiments using the IPO tripole index (TPI). The TPI is explicitly aligned with the observed spatial pattern of the IPO, and circumvents assumptions about the nature of global warming. We find that many models underestimate the ratio of decadal-to-total variance in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, the basin-wide spatial pattern of positive and negative phases of the IPO are simulated reasonably well, with spatial pattern correlation coefficients between observations and models spanning the range 0.4–0.8. Deficiencies are mainly in the extratropical Pacific. Models that better capture the spatial pattern of the IPO also tend to more realistically simulate the ratio of decadal to total variance. Of the 13% of model centuries that have a fractional bias in the decadal-to-total TPI variance of 0.2 or less, 84% also have a spatial pattern correlation coefficient with the observed pattern exceeding 0.5. This result is highly consistent across both IPO positive and negative phases. This is evidence that the IPO is related to one or more inherent dynamical mechanisms of the climate system.

[1]  I. Smith,et al.  Apparent limitations in the ability of CMIP5 climate models to simulate recent multi-decadal change in surface temperature: implications for global temperature projections , 2017, Climate Dynamics.

[2]  Hisashi Nakamura,et al.  The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited , 2016 .

[3]  G. Meehl,et al.  Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation , 2016, Nature Communications.

[4]  K. Anchukaitis,et al.  North Pacific decadal variability in the CMIP5 last millennium simulations , 2016, Climate Dynamics.

[5]  Ed Hawkins,et al.  Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown , 2016 .

[6]  G. Meehl,et al.  How sensitive are the Pacific–tropical North Atlantic teleconnections to the position and intensity of El Niño-related warming? , 2016, Climate Dynamics.

[7]  J. Wallace,et al.  ENSO-Like Variability: 1900-2013* , 2015 .

[8]  E. Fischer,et al.  The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes , 2015 .

[9]  D. Schrag,et al.  Decadal changes in South Pacific sea surface temperatures and the relationship to the Pacific decadal oscillation and upper ocean heat content , 2015 .

[10]  J. Kennedy,et al.  A Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation , 2015, Climate Dynamics.

[11]  Dean Roemmich,et al.  Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006 , 2015 .

[12]  G. Meehl,et al.  Early twentieth-century warming linked to tropical Pacific wind strength , 2015 .

[13]  S. Power,et al.  Inability of CMIP5 Models to Simulate Recent Strengthening of the Walker Circulation: Implications for Projections , 2015 .

[14]  E. Wise.  Tropical Pacific and Northern Hemisphere influences on the coherence of Pacific Decadal Oscillation reconstructions , 2015 .

[15]  Shang-Ping Xie,et al.  Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability , 2014 .

[16]  T. Zhou,et al.  Changes of Pacific decadal variability in the twentieth century driven by internal variability, greenhouse gases, and aerosols , 2014 .

[17]  A. Timmermann,et al.  Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming , 2014 .

[18]  G. Meehl,et al.  Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming , 2014 .

[19]  M. England,et al.  Drivers of decadal hiatus periods in the 20th and 21st centuries , 2014 .

[20]  R. Betts,et al.  Uncertainties in the timing of unprecedented climates , 2014, Nature.

[21]  Camilo Mora,et al.  Mora et al. reply , 2014, Nature.

[22]  Nick Rayner,et al.  The Met Office Hadley Centre sea ice and sea surface temperature data set, version 2: 1. Sea ice concentrations , 2014 .

[23]  G. Meehl,et al.  CMIP5 multi‐model hindcasts for the mid‐1970s shift and early 2000s hiatus and predictions for 2016–2035 , 2014 .

[24]  Agus Santoso,et al.  Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus , 2014 .

[25]  M. Holland,et al.  Near-term climate change:Projections and predictability , 2014 .

[26]  F. Molteni,et al.  Pacific interdecadal variability driven by tropical–extratropical interactions , 2014, Climate Dynamics.

[27]  Jaclyn N. Brown,et al.  Zonal structure and variability of the Western Pacific dynamic warm pool edge in CMIP5 , 2014, Climate Dynamics.

[28]  Lixin Wu,et al.  The impact of global warming on the pacific decadal oscillation and the possible mechanism , 2014, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

[29]  Yu Kosaka,et al.  Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling , 2013, Nature.

[30]  Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models , 2013 .

[31]  E. Guilyardi,et al.  ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[32]  G. Meehl,et al.  Case studies for initialized decadal hindcasts and predictions for the Pacific region , 2012 .

[33]  G. Meehl,et al.  Relating the strength of the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) to the phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) , 2012 .

[34]  S. Sain,et al.  Bayesian modelling and ensemble reconstruction of mid‐scale spatial variability in North Atlantic sea‐surface temperatures for 1850–2008 , 2012 .

[35]  E. Guilyardi,et al.  A first look at ENSO in CMIP5 , 2012 .

[36]  George Kuczera,et al.  Climate‐informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal‐scale variability using paleo data , 2011 .

[37]  Aixue Hu,et al.  Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods , 2011 .

[38]  N. Bond,et al.  North Pacific Decadal Variability and Climate Change in the IPCC AR4 Models , 2011 .

[39]  D. Sauchyn,et al.  GCM projections for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation under greenhouse forcing for the early 21st century , 2010 .

[40]  A. Sullivan,et al.  Asymmetry in ENSO Teleconnection with Regional Rainfall, Its Multidecadal Variability, and Impact , 2010 .

[41]  K. Oshima,et al.  An evaluation of reproducibility of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the CMIP3 simulations. , 2009 .

[42]  D. Wuebbles,et al.  Assessing General Circulation Model Simulations of Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns , 2009 .

[43]  Alexander Ilin,et al.  Bayesian PCA for reconstruction of historical sea surface temperatures , 2009, 2009 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks.

[44]  B. Santer,et al.  The mid-1970s climate shift in the Pacific and the relative roles of forced versus inherent decadal variability. , 2009 .

[45]  Rosanne D'Arrigo,et al.  On the Asian expression of the PDO , 2006 .

[46]  G. Meehl,et al.  Megadroughts in the Indian Monsoon Region and Southwest North America and a Mechanism for Associated Multidecadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies , 2006 .

[47]  Bruce D. Cornuelle,et al.  The Forcing of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation , 2005 .

[48]  B. Henry,et al.  Pasture degradation and recovery in Australia's rangelands: learning from history , 2004 .

[49]  Matthew Newman,et al.  ENSO-Forced Variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation , 2003 .

[50]  S. Franks,et al.  Multi‐decadal variability of flood risk , 2003 .

[51]  M. J. Salinger,et al.  Relative influences of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and ENSO on the South Pacific Convergence Zone , 2002 .

[52]  G. Meehl,et al.  Interdecadal modulation of Australian rainfall , 2002 .

[53]  R. Villalba,et al.  Tree-ring estimates of Pacific decadal climate variability , 2001 .

[54]  K. Taylor.  Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram , 2001 .

[55]  S. Power,et al.  Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia , 1999 .

[56]  R. Washington,et al.  Large Scale Modes of Ocean Surface Temperature Since the Late Nineteenth Century , 1999 .

[57]  J. Wallace,et al.  A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production , 1997 .