A Data Driven Analytic Strategy for Increasing Yield and Retention

As many Universities face the constraints of declining enrollment demographics, pressure from state governments for increased student success, as well as declining revenues, the costs of utilizing anecdotal evidence and intuition based on ‘gut’ feelings to make time and resource allocation decisions become significant. However, grasping advanced statistical methods and analytics for data driven decision making can be overwhelming to some staff making buy in difficult. This paper describes how we are using SAS® Enterprise Miner to develop a model to score university students based on their probability of enrollment and retention early in the enrollment funnel so that staff and administrators can work to recruit students that not only have an average or better chance of enrolling but also succeeding once they enroll. Incorporating these results into SAS® EBI will allow us to deliver easy-to-understand results to university personnel.

[1]  Will They Stay or Will They Go? Predicting the Risk of Attrition at a Large Public University , 2007 .

[2]  Ramesh Sharda,et al.  Movie forecast Guru: A Web-based DSS for Hollywood managers , 2007, Decis. Support Syst..

[3]  T. Bruggink,et al.  Statistical models for college admission and enrollment: A case study for a selective liberal arts college , 1996 .

[4]  Dennis M. O'Toole,et al.  A Multinomial Logit Model of College Stopout and Dropout Behavior , 2005, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[5]  D. Ruppert The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction , 2004 .

[6]  Xueping Li,et al.  A comparative analysis of predictive data mining techniques , 2009 .

[7]  Bradley R. Curs,et al.  An analysis of the application and enrollment processes for in-state and out-of-state students at a large public university , 2002 .

[8]  Leo Breiman,et al.  Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures (with comments and a rejoinder by the author) , 2001 .

[9]  J. Cahill,et al.  Does it Matter Who's in the Classroom? Effect of Instructor Type on Student Retention, Achievement and Satisfaction , 2004 .

[10]  John M. Braxton,et al.  Understanding and Reducing College Student Departure , 2004 .

[11]  Chris James,et al.  Using SAS® Enterprise BI and SAS® Enterprise MinerTM to Reduce Student Attrition , 2012 .

[12]  Dursun Delen,et al.  Predicting breast cancer survivability: a comparison of three data mining methods , 2005, Artif. Intell. Medicine.

[13]  Ron Kohavi,et al.  The Case against Accuracy Estimation for Comparing Induction Algorithms , 1998, ICML.

[14]  Serge Herzog,et al.  Measuring Determinants of Student Return VS. Dropout/Stopout VS. Transfer: A First-to-Second Year Analysis of New Freshmen , 2005 .

[15]  John M. Braxton Reworking the Student Departure Puzzle , 2020 .

[16]  T. E. Miller,et al.  Analysis of Variables to Predict First-Year Persistence at the University of South Florida Using Logistic Regression Analysis , 2008 .

[17]  William Dawes,et al.  Using Predictive Modeling To Target Student Recruitment: Theory and Practice. AIR 1999 Annual Forum Paper. , 1999 .

[18]  J. Friedman Greedy function approximation: A gradient boosting machine. , 2001 .

[19]  Willis A. Jensen,et al.  Decision Trees for Business Intelligence and Data Mining: Using SAS® Enterprise Miner™ , 2008, Technometrics.

[20]  C. Goenner,et al.  A Predictive Model of Inquiry to Enrollment , 2006 .

[21]  Eric L. Dey,et al.  Statistical alternatives for studying college student retention: A comparative analysis of logit, probit, and linear regression , 1993 .

[22]  Melody Y. Kiang,et al.  A comparative assessment of classification methods , 2003, Decis. Support Syst..

[23]  John P. Bean Dropouts and turnover: The synthesis and test of a causal model of student attrition , 1980 .

[24]  Stephen L. Desjardins An Analytic Strategy to Assist Institutional Recruitment and Marketing Efforts , 2002 .

[25]  Barry De Ville,et al.  Decision Trees for Business Intelligence and Data Mining: Using SAS Enterprise Miner , 2006 .

[26]  D. Chapman,et al.  Predictors of academic and social integration of college students , 1983 .

[27]  Vincent Tinto Dropout from Higher Education: A Theoretical Synthesis of Recent Research , 1975 .

[28]  Rich Caruana,et al.  An empirical comparison of supervised learning algorithms , 2006, ICML.

[29]  Ernest T. Pascarella,et al.  The relation of students' precollege characteristics and freshman year experience to voluntary attrition , 1978 .

[30]  Peter E. Kennedy A Guide to Econometrics , 1979 .