Full conglomerability

We do a thorough mathematical study of the notion of full conglomerability, that is, conglomerability with respect to all the partitions of an infinite possibility space, in the sense considered by Peter Walley. We consider both the cases of precise and imprecise probability (sets of probabilities). We establish relations between conglomerability and countable additivity, continuity, super-additivity, and marginal extension. Moreover, we discuss the special case where a model is conglomerable with respect to a subset of all the partitions, and try to sort out the different notions of conglomerability present in the literature. We conclude that countable additivity, which is routinely used to impose full conglomerability in the precise case, appears to be the most well-behaved way to do so in the imprecise case as well by taking envelopes of countably additive probabilities. Moreover, we characterize these envelopes by means of a number of necessary and sufficient conditions.

[1]  S. Ulam,et al.  Zur Masstheorie in der allgemeinen Mengenlehre , 1930 .

[2]  Bruno de Finetti,et al.  Probability, induction and statistics , 1972 .

[3]  Lester E. Dubins,et al.  On Lebesgue-like Extensions of Finitely Additive Measures , 1974 .

[4]  L. Dubins Finitely Additive Conditional Probabilities, Conglomerability and Disintegrations , 1975 .

[5]  K. Prikry,et al.  On the semimetric on a boolean algebra induced by a finitely additive probability measure , 1982 .

[6]  K. D. Joshi Introduction to General Topology , 1983 .

[7]  Joseph B. Kadane,et al.  The extent of non-conglomerability of finitely additive probabilities , 1984 .

[8]  Eugenio Regazzini,et al.  Finitely additive conditional probabilities , 1985 .

[9]  Tom Armstrong,et al.  Conglomerability of probability measures on Boolean algebras , 1990 .

[10]  P. Walley Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities , 1990 .

[11]  Patrizia Berti,et al.  Coherent Statistical Inference and Bayes Theorem , 1991 .

[12]  Patrizia Berti,et al.  Weak disintegrability as a form of preservation of coherence , 1992 .

[13]  D. Denneberg Non-additive measure and integral , 1994 .

[14]  Joseph B. Kadane,et al.  Non-Conglomerability for Finite-Valued, Finitely Additive Probability , 1998 .

[15]  Joseph B. Kadane,et al.  Rethinking the Foundations of Statistics: Statistical Implications of Finitely Additive Probability , 1999 .

[16]  Joseph B. Kadane,et al.  Rethinking the Foundations of Statistics: Subject Index , 1999 .

[17]  Volker Krätschmer,et al.  When fuzzy measures are upper envelopes of probability measures , 2003, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[18]  Serafín Moral,et al.  Epistemic irrelevance on sets of desirable gambles , 2005, Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence.

[19]  P. M. Williams,et al.  Notes on conditional previsions , 2007, Int. J. Approx. Reason..

[20]  J. K. Hunter,et al.  Measure Theory , 2007 .

[21]  Marco Zaffalon,et al.  Notes on desirability and conditional lower previsions , 2010, Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence.

[22]  Two theories of conditional probability and non-conglomerability , 2013 .

[23]  Marco Zaffalon,et al.  Probability and time , 2013, Artif. Intell..

[24]  Marco Zaffalon,et al.  Conglomerable coherence , 2013, Int. J. Approx. Reason..

[25]  Joseph B. Kadane,et al.  On the equivalence of conglomerability and disintegrability for unbounded random variables , 2014, Stat. Methods Appl..

[26]  Serena Doria,et al.  Symmetric coherent upper conditional prevision defined by the Choquet integral with respect to Hausdorff outer measure , 2015, Ann. Oper. Res..

[27]  Marco Zaffalon,et al.  On the problem of computing the conglomerable natural extension , 2015, Int. J. Approx. Reason..

[28]  Barbara Vantaggi,et al.  Envelopes of conditional probabilities extending a strategy and a prior probability , 2016, Int. J. Approx. Reason..

[29]  L. Ferrari Teoria delle Probabilità , 2017 .

[30]  B. D. Finetti,et al.  Theory of Probability: A Critical Introductory Treatment , 2017 .