The cost of domestic fuel cell micro-CHP systems

Abstract Numerous academic and industrial estimates place the cost of future mass-produced small stationary fuel cell systems at around $1000 per kW, which compares well with targets set by agencies such as the US Department of Energy. Actual sale prices do not fit so neatly with these targets, and are currently 25–50 times higher even though mass production began three years ago. This paper explores the void between academic projections and commercial reality. It presents a systematic review of cost data from manufacturers in Europe, Asia and the US, along with near-term projections from manufacturers and other relevant organisations. Using these data, the potential for cost reductions through industry scale-up and learning by doing are quantified. The minimum feasible price of a typical 1 kW natural gas combined heat and power system is then estimated from industry data. Based on the findings, even a heroic effort by industry is unlikely to reduce the price of small domestic-scale systems to the $1000/kW mark. By aligning the scope and boundaries of cost estimates with the realities of domestic microgeneration systems, we show that a long-term target of $3000–5000 for 1–2 kW systems is more realistic, and could feasibly be attained by 2020 at the current rate of progress.

[1]  Siti Kartom Kamarudin,et al.  Technical design and economic evaluation of a PEM fuel cell system , 2006 .

[2]  Ned Djilali,et al.  An assessment of alkaline fuel cell technology , 2002 .

[3]  Iain Staffell,et al.  Estimating future prices for stationary fuel cells with empirically derived experience curves , 2009 .

[4]  R. H. Boll,et al.  Economics of on-site power generation by fuel cells , 1968 .

[5]  Gardner Ackley,et al.  安定政策の目標("The American Economic Review"78年5月号掲載) , 1978 .

[6]  Iain Staffell,et al.  Fuel cells for domestic heat and power: are they worth it? , 2010 .

[7]  Michael J. Binder,et al.  DOD residential proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell demonstration program. volume 1, Summary of the fiscal year 2001 program , 2004 .

[8]  Iain Staffell,et al.  A review of small stationary fuel cell performance , 2009 .

[9]  David L. Greene,et al.  Status and Outlook for the U.S. Non-Automotive Fuel Cell Industry: Impacts of Government Policies and Assessment of Future Opportunities , 2011 .

[10]  Osamu Kobayashi,et al.  Mass production cost of PEM fuel cell by learning curve , 2004 .

[11]  Malte Schwoon,et al.  Learning by doing, learning spillovers and the diffusion of fuel cell vehicles , 2008, Simul. Model. Pract. Theory.

[12]  C. Wene.  Experience Curves for Energy Technology Policy , 2000 .

[13]  Stephan Schmid,et al.  Fuel cells for automotive powertrains―A techno-economic assessment , 2009 .

[14]  Ludmilla Schlecht.  Competition and alliances in fuel cell power train development , 2003 .

[15]  Adam Hawkes,et al.  Fuel cells for micro-combined heat and power generation , 2009 .

[16]  Michael J. Binder,et al.  DOD Residential Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) Fuel Cell Demonstration Program. Volume 2. Summary of Fiscal Year 2001-2003 Projects , 2005 .

[17]  Iain Staffell,et al.  Cost targets for domestic fuel cell CHP , 2008 .

[18]  Richard Green,et al.  Turning the wind into hydrogen: The long-run impact on electricity prices and generating capacity , 2011 .

[19]  G. G. Stokes.  "J." , 1890, The New Yale Book of Quotations.

[20]  Gregor Hoogers,et al.  Fuel Cell Technology Handbook , 2002 .

[21]  Chester Coomer,et al.  Evaluation of the 2010 Toyota Prius Hybrid Synergy Drive System , 2011 .

[22]  Tooraj Jamasb,et al.  Delivering a low carbon electricity system , 2008 .

[23]  R. Tol,et al.  The Energy Journal , 2006 .

[24]  Andrea Gregg,et al.  Learning From Doing: Lessons Learned From Designing and Developing an Educational Software Within a Heterogeneous Group , 2021, Int. J. Web Based Learn. Teach. Technol..

[25]  J. Dutton,et al.  Treating Progress Functions as a Managerial Opportunity , 1984 .

[26]  Wim Turkenburg,et al.  Global experience curves for wind farms , 2005 .

[27]  Brian D. James,et al.  Market penetration scenarios for fuel cell vehicles , 1998 .

[28]  Karsten Neuhoff,et al.  Learning by Doing with Constrained Growth Rates:An Application to Energy Technology Policy , 2008 .

[29]  Leo Schrattenholzer,et al.  Learning rates for energy technologies , 2001 .

[30]  Lena Neij,et al.  Cost development of future technologies for power generation--A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments , 2008 .

[31]  F. Ferioli,et al.  Use and limitations of learning curves for energy technology policy: A component-learning hypothesis , 2009 .

[32]  Yong Yang,et al.  SOLID OXIDE FUEL CELL MANUFACTURING COST MODEL: SIMULATING RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN PERFORMANCE, MANUFACTURING, AND COST OF PRODUCTION , 2004 .

[33]  Gregory J. Offer,et al.  “PEM Fuel Cell Electrocatalysts and Catalyst Layers: Fundamentals and Applications” , 2009 .

[34]  Hans-Holger Rogner,et al.  Hydrogen technologies and the technology learning curve , 1998 .

[35]  Chihiro Watanabe,et al.  Towards a local learning (innovation) model of solar photovoltaic deployment , 2008 .

[36]  John B. Shoven,et al.  I , Edinburgh Medical and Surgical Journal.

[37]  Tooraj Jamasb,et al.  Learning Curves For Energy Technology: A Critical Assessment , 2007 .

[38]  Stephen J. Skinner,et al.  Functional materials for sustainable energy applications , 2012 .

[39]  Michele Amoretti,et al.  Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory , 2015 .

[40]  Adam Hawkes,et al.  Solid oxide fuel cell systems for residential micro-combined heat and power in the UK: Key economic drivers , 2005 .

[41]  Albert A. Cannella.  Academy of Management Review: Editorial Note , 2004 .

[42]  W. Patterson.  Energy policy , 1978, Nature.

[43]  Richard E. Blanchard,et al.  UK microgeneration. Part II: technology overviews , 2010 .

[44]  M. Guerra‒Balcázar,et al.  Glycerol oxidation in a microfluidic fuel cell using Pd/C and Pd/MWCNT anodes electrodes , 2013 .

[45]  H. C. Maru,et al.  1?10 kW Stationary Combined Heat and Power Systems Status and Technical Potential: Independent Review , 2010 .

[46]  James E. McMahon,et al.  Technical Support Document: Energy efficiency standards for consumer products: residential central air conditioners and heat pumps , 2004 .

[47]  Soon Heung Chang,et al.  Simulation of the market penetration of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in Korea , 2008 .

[48]  D. Fudenberg,et al.  The Fat-Cat Effect, the Puppy-Dog Ploy, and the Lean and Hungry Look , 1984 .