CBO Testimony: The Ability of the U.S. Military to Sustain an Occupation in Iraq

Abstract : More than 150,000 U.S. military personnel are currently involved in the occupation of Iraq -- about 120,000 of them deployed in Iraq itself and the rest supporting the occupation from neighboring countries (primarily Kuwait). This past September, at the request of the Senate Appropriations Committee, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) examined the United States' capability to sustain an occupation force in Iraq over the long term and the associated costs. This testimony describes the results of that work. In performing its analysis, CBO made no assumptions about how long the occupation might last or about the size of the force that might be necessary. Instead, CBO's work focused on determining how large an occupation the U.S. military could sustain in Iraq indefinitely -- while still maintaining acceptable levels of military readiness and not jeopardizing the quality of the all-volunteer force -- under various policy options. Those options include using only combat troops from the Army's active component for the occupation, employing other existing U.S. ground forces as well, and expanding current forces to incorporate two additional Army divisions. CBO's analysis indicates that the active Army would be unable to sustain an occupation force of the present size beyond about March 2004 if it chose not to keep individual units deployed to Iraq for longer than one year without relief. In the 6 to 12 months after March, the level of U.S. forces in Iraq would begin to decline as units that had been deployed for a year were relieved and were not replaced on a one-for-one basis. After the winter of 2004-2005, the United States could sustain -- indefinitely, if need be -- an occupation force of 38,000 to 64,000 military personnel using only combat units from the Army's active component (and some support units from the reserves), the option that constitutes the base case in this analysis. With a force that size, the occupation would cost $8-$12 billion per year.