Current land use is a poor predictor of hellbender occurrence: why assumptions matter when predicting distributions of data‐deficient species

Aim Understanding species distributions is fundamental to effective conservation planning. Data deficiency is common among rare and imperiled species and poses challenges for conservation planning because status assessments become reliant on scant data that can introduce bias. We used occupancy modelling to evaluate support for commonly accepted, but previously untested, hypotheses regarding factors that drive the occurrence of an imperiled and data-deficient amphibian, the eastern hellbender (Cryptobranchus alleganiensis). We investigated the potential for mismatch between areas likely to be identified as having high conservation priority based on the common assumption that hellbender occurrence corresponds to areas of high forest cover and those identified by well-informed models.