The Horsfall-Barratt scale and severity estimates of citrus canker

Citrus canker assessment data were used to investigate effects of using the Horsfall-Barratt (H-B) scale to estimate disease compared to direct estimation to the nearest percent. Twenty-eight raters assessed each of two-hundred infected leaves (0–38% true diseased area). The data were converted to the H-B scale. Correlation (r) showed that direct estimates had higher inter-rater reliability compared to H-B scaled data (r = 0.75 and 0.71 for direct estimates and H-B scaled data, respectively). Lin’s concordance correlation (LCC, ρc) analysis showed individual rater estimates by direct estimation had better agreement with true values compared to H-B scaled data. The direct estimates were more precise compared to H-B scaled data (r = 0.80–0.95 and 0.61–0.90, respectively), but measures of generalised bias or accuracy (Cb) were similar for both methods (0.38–1.00). Cumulative mean disease and cumulative variance of the means were calculated for each rater on a leaf-by-leaf basis. Direct estimates were closer to the true severity 59.5% of the time, and to the cumulative true sample mean 53.7% of the time, and to the cumulative true sample mean variance 63.6% of the time. Estimates of mean severity for each leaf based on estimates by 3, 5, 10, 20 and 28 raters were compared to true disease severity. LCC showed that rater-means based on more raters had better agreement with true values compared to individual estimates, but H-B scale data were less precise, although with means based on ≥ 10 raters, agreement was the same for both assessment methods. Magnitude and dispersion of the variance of the means based on H-B scaled data was greater than that by direct estimates. H-B scaling did not improve reliability, accuracy or precision of the estimate of citrus canker severity compared to direct visual estimation.

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