Prospective outcome analysis of multiple sclerosis cases reveals candidate prognostic cerebrospinal fluid markers

Background Predicting the long-term disability outcomes of multiple sclerosis (MS) cases is challenging. Objective We prospectively analysed our previous MS cohort with initial cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) proteomics data to reveal disability markers after 8.2±2.2 years of follow-up. Methods Patients with regular follow-up visits were assigned into two groups: those with an age-related MS severity (ARMSS) score ≥5 (unfavourable course group, N = 27) and ARMSS score <5 (favourable course group, N = 67). A machine learning-based algorithm was applied to reveal candidate poor prognosis-associated initial CSF proteins, which were measured in an independent MS cohort (verification group, N = 40) by ELISA. Additionally, the correlation of initial clinical and radiological parameters with long-term disability was analysed. Results CSF alpha-2-macroglobulin (P = 0.0015), apo-A1 (P = 0.0016), and haptoglobin (P = 0.0003) protein levels, as well as cerebral lesion load (>9 lesions) on magnetic resonance imaging, gait disturbance (P = 0.04), and bladder/bowel symptoms (P = 0.01) were significantly higher in the unfavourable course group than in the favourable course group. Optic nerve involvement evident on initial magnetic resonance imaging (P = 0.002) and optic neuritis (P = 0.01) were more frequent in the favourable course group. Conclusion The herein identified initial CSF protein levels, in addition to the clinical and radiological parameters at disease onset, have predictive value for long-term disability in MS cases.