Influence of Rain on Highway Breakdown Probability

Capacity has been used to describe a deterministic value that represents the maximum volume of traffic supported by a road. Studies have pointed out the importance of not using a single value for capacity, but rather the concept of probability of occurrence of a traffic-flow breakdown. In this paper the probabilities of breakdown for a Brazilian highway under different weather conditions are compared. Data collected from inductive loop detectors and pluviometric data from automatic rain gauges are combined. Two methodologies of breakdown identification are then compared. The most consistent methodology for identifying breakdowns is used to generate breakdown probability distributions using the product limit and maximum-likelihood methods with the Weibull distribution. The results indicate significant differences in probability of breakdown for each studied climatic condition, including a maximum difference greater than 50% between dry and heavy rain conditions under the same traffic flow.

[1]  Lily Elefteriadou,et al.  An investigation of freeway capacity before and during incidents , 2013 .

[2]  Werner Brilon,et al.  A Comparative Assessment of Stochastic Capacity Estimation Methods , 2009 .

[3]  Lily Elefteriadou,et al.  Probabilistic nature of breakdown at freeway merge junctions , 1995 .

[4]  Alexandra Kondyli,et al.  Proactive Ramp Management under the Threat of Freeway-Flow Breakdown , 2011 .

[5]  Lily Elefteriadou.  An Introduction to Traffic Flow Theory , 2013 .

[6]  W Brilon,et al.  Ueberlastungswahrscheinlichkeiten und Verkehrsleistung als Bemessungskriterium fuer Verkehrsanlagen / Overload probabilities and traffic activity as design criteria for road traffic systems , 2003 .

[7]  Alexandra Kondyli,et al.  Freeway Capacity Estimation Method for Planning Applications , 2014 .

[8]  黒田 孝次,et al.  Highway Capacity Manual改訂の動向--テイラ-教授の講演より , 1984 .

[9]  E. Kaplan,et al.  Nonparametric Estimation from Incomplete Observations , 1958 .

[10]  E. Molin,et al.  The influence of adverse weather conditions on probability of congestion on Dutch motorways , 2015, European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research.

[11]  Hani S. Mahmassani,et al.  Likelihood and Duration of Flow Breakdown , 2010 .

[12]  Werner Brilon,et al.  Reliability of Freeway Traffic Flow: A Stochastic Concept of Capacity , 2005 .

[13]  José Reynaldo Setti,et al.  Speed-Flow Relationship and Capacity for Expressways in Brazil , 2014 .

[14]  Hesham A Rakha,et al.  Multivariate calibration of single regime speed-flow-density relationships [road traffic management] , 1995, Pacific Rim TransTech Conference. 1995 Vehicle Navigation and Information Systems Conference Proceedings. 6th International VNIS. A Ride into the Future.

[15]  Lily Elefteriadou,et al.  Revisiting the Definition and Measurement of Capacity , 2006 .

[16]  Lily Elefteriadou,et al.  A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH TO DEFINING FREEWAY CAPACITY AND BREAKDOWN , 2000 .

[17]  M. Kuwahara,et al.  Does Weather Affect Highway Capacity , 2006 .

[18]  M. Greenwood.  A Report on the Natural Duration of Cancer. , 1926 .

[19]  Sam Yagar,et al.  Exploration of the Breakdown Phenomenon in Freeway Traffic , 1998 .

[20]  Alexandra Kondyli,et al.  Development and Evaluation of Methods for Constructing Breakdown Probability Models , 2013 .