Meta-analysis for Explaining the Variance in Public Transport Demand Elasticities in Europe

Results from past studies on transportation demand elasticities show a large variance. This paper assesses key factors that influence the sensitivity of public transit users to transportation costs in Europe, by carrying out a comparative analysis of the different elasticity values of demand for transportation that are being used in some different member states. The empirical base is elasticity studies in Norway, Finland, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. The paper identifies a set of potential factors causing variances between results of different studies. An in depth rough set analysis of causes of variances between elasticity values across the four countries is presented. The analysis supports the literature, which indicates that the difference between aggregated, empirical-based research methods and the use of disaggregated choice models, as well as model assumptions, explain the variance in elasticity values accross studies. It also appears that the country involved, the number of competitive modes, and type of data are important factors for the size of elasticities.

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