A Stochastic Modeling and Analysis Approach to Strategic Traffic Flow Management under Weather Uncertainty

In this article, we introduce a promising framework for representing an air traffic flow (stream) and flow-management action operating under weather uncertainty. We propose to use a meshed queuing and Markov-chain model—specifically, a queuing model whose service-rates are modulated by an underlying Markov chain describing weather-impact evolution—to capture traffic management in an uncertain environment. Two techniques for characterizing flow-management performance using the model are developed, namely 1) a master-Markov-chain representation technique that yields accurate results but at relatively high computational cost, and 2) a jump-linear system-based approximation that has promising scalability. The model formulation and two analysis techniques are illustrated with numerous examples. Based on this initial study, we believe that the interfaced weather-impact and traffic-flow model analyzed here holds promise to inform strategic flow contingency management in NextGen.