A Quantitative Assessment of the Outcome of the Doha Development Agenda

Different options contemplated by the negotiators of the Doha Development Agenda are assessed using the Computable General Equilibrium model MIRAGE, the MAcMap and GTAP databases, existing estimates of protection in the services sector as well as estimates of the administrative and transaction costs to be reduced by trade facilitation measures. In all scenarios (with the exception of "free trade"), we consider that the "G90" will not be requested to liberalise. Export subsidies in agriculture are completely eliminated, taking into account the 2013 deadline agreed in Hong Kong in December 2005, and domestic farm support is halved. When an average 36% linear cut in tariffs is implemented in the industrial and in the agricultural sectors (but with a reduction limited to 25% for sensitive products in the latter sector), we end up with a "Round for nothing". At the opposite of the spectrum, free trade in goods would lead to USD 232 bn welfare gains for the world economy (expressed in 2005 terms). There is however more to be gained, for the world economy, from a 25% cut of the barriers in services, than from a 70% tariff cut in agriculture in the North and a 50% cut in the South. On the top of this, a successful trade facilitation agenda would be equivalent to doubling official development aid to Sub-Saharan Africa countries after 2020. In the latter case, how to finance such program remains however a challenging issue.

[1]  G. Gaulier,et al.  Exchange-Rate Pass-Through at the Product Level , 2008 .

[2]  Guonan Ma.  Who Pays China's Bank Restructuring Bill? , 2007, Asian Economic Papers.

[3]  S. Coulibaly,et al.  South – South Trade: Geography Matters , 2006 .

[4]  S. Polaski.  Winners and Losers: Impact of the Doha Round on Developing Countries , 2006 .

[5]  Houssein Guimbard,et al.  Base de données CHELEM-BAL du CEPII , 2006 .

[6]  G. Gaulier,et al.  Structural Determinants of the Exchange-Rate Pass-Through , 2006 .

[7]  G. Gaulier,et al.  World Trade Competitiveness: A Disaggregated View by Shift-Share Analysis , 2005 .

[8]  A. Bénassy-Quéré,et al.  ECB Governance in an Enlarged Eurozone , 2005 .

[9]  Évelyne Dourille-Feer.  Chômage et réformes du marché du travail au Japon , 2005 .

[10]  V. Coudert,et al.  Does Exchange Rate Regime Explain Differences in Economic Results for Asian Countries , 2005 .

[11]  Mohamed Hedi Bchir,et al.  Binding Overhang and Tariff-Cutting Formulas , 2005 .

[12]  S. Jean,et al.  Consequences of Alternative Formulas for Agricultural Tariff Cuts , 2005 .

[13]  Véronique Salins.  Impact de l'ouverture financière sur les inégalités internes dans les pays émergents , 2005 .

[14]  Mohamed Hedi Bchir,et al.  From Bound Duties to Actual Protection: Industrial Liberalisation in the Doha Round. ENEPRI Working Paper No. 41, 2005 , 2005 .

[15]  W. Martin,et al.  Would Multilateral Trade Reform Benefit Sub-Saharan Africans? , 2005 .

[16]  J. Cockburn,et al.  Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Poverty in Senegal: A Dynamic Microsimulation Cge Model Analysis , 2005 .

[17]  F. Lemoine,et al.  L’économie indienne: changements structurels et perspectives à long-terme , 2005 .

[18]  J. Francois,et al.  Trade Liberalization in the Doha Development Round , 2005 .

[19]  J. Bureau,et al.  Multilateral Agricultural Trade Liberalisation: The Contrasting Fortunes of Developing Countries in the Doha Round , 2005 .

[20]  Marta Castilho,et al.  La compétitivité de l’agriculture et des industries agroalimentaires dans le Mercosur et l’Union européenne dans une perspective de libéralisation commerciale , 2004 .

[21]  K. Lommatzsch,et al.  The Stock-Flow Approach to the Real Exchange Rate of CEE Transition Economies , 2004 .

[22]  C. Bac,et al.  Vieillissement démographique, épargne et retraite: une analyse à l’aide d’un modèle d’équilibre général à agents hétérogènes , 2004 .

[23]  G. Nicoletti,et al.  Regulation and Wage Premia , 2004 .

[24]  P. Zanghieri.  Current Account Dynamics in New EU Members: Sustainability and Policy Issues , 2004 .

[25]  Anne-Célia Disdier,et al.  How different is Eastern Europe? Structure and determinants of location choices by French firms in Eastern and Western Europe , 2004 .

[26]  P. Villa.  Incertitude radicale et choix du modèle , 2004 .

[27]  Hervé Boulhol.  Technology Differences, Institutions and Economic Growth: a Conditional Conditional Convergence , 2004 .

[28]  P. Walkenhorst,et al.  Quantitative Assessment of the Benefits of Trade Facilitation , 2004 .

[29]  Shalendra D. Sharma.  Going beyond Cancun: Realizing the development promise of the Doha agenda , 2004 .

[30]  H. Meijl,et al.  Economic Implications of Trade Liberalization Under the Doha Round , 2003 .

[31]  P. Walkenhorst,et al.  Tariff Bindings, Unused Protection and Agricultural Trade Liberalisation , 2003 .

[32]  F. Legros.  Notional Defined Contribution: a Comparison of the French and the German Point Systems , 2003 .

[33]  S. Chauvin,et al.  India in the World Economy: Traditional Specialisations and Technology Niches , 2003 .

[34]  M. Beine,et al.  Imitation Amongst Exchange-Rate Forecasters: Evidence from Survey Data , 2003 .

[35]  T. Mayer,et al.  The Empirics of Agglomeration and Trade , 2003 .

[36]  D. Vanzetti,et al.  Market Access Proposals for Non-Agricultural Products , 2003 .

[37]  Balázs Égert,et al.  Estimating the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of Central and Eastern European Countries; The EMU Enlargement Perspective , 2003 .

[38]  Soledad Zignago,et al.  Skills, Technology and Growth: Is ICT the Key to Success? , 2003 .

[39]  Alan K. Fox,et al.  Measuring Border Crossing Costs and their Impact on Trade Flows: The United States-Mexican Trucking Case , 2003 .

[40]  C. Mann,et al.  Trade Facilitation and Economic Development: Measuring the Impact , 2003 .

[41]  P. Combes,et al.  Can Business and Social Networks Explain the Border Effect Puzzle? , 2003 .

[42]  P. Walkenhorst,et al.  Bound Tariffs, Unused Protection, and Agricultural Trade Liberalisation , 2002 .

[43]  T. Hertel,et al.  The Cost of Rich (and Poor) Country Protection to Developing Countries , 2001 .

[44]  K. Kalirajan.  Restrictions on Trade in Distribution Services , 2000 .

[45]  Duc Nguyen-Hong.  Restrictions on Trade in Professional Services , 2000 .

[46]  Joseph F. Francois,et al.  Commercial Policy Variability, Bindings and Market Access , 2000 .

[47]  W. Martin,et al.  The Uruguay Round and the Developing Countries , 1997 .

[48]  G. Gaulier,et al.  China's Emergence and the Reorganisation of Trade Flows in Asia , 2007 .

[49]  Przemysław Kowalski,et al.  The Doha Development Agenda , 2006 .

[50]  Olena Havrylchyk,et al.  Profitability of Foreign and Domestic Banks in Central and Eastern Europe : Does the Mode of Entry Matter? , 2006 .

[51]  S. Jean,et al.  What Are EU Trade Preferences Worth , 2005 .

[52]  Mohamed Hedi Bchir,et al.  FROM BOUND DUTIES TO ACTUAL PROTECTION , 2005 .

[53]  V. Coudert,et al.  Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China , 2005 .

[54]  Mohamed Hedi Bchir,et al.  INDUSTRIAL LIBERALISATION IN THE DOHA ROUND , 2005 .

[55]  P. Villa.  Croissance et régimes d'investissement , 2004 .

[56]  對外經濟政策研究院,et al.  Measuring tariff equivalents in cross-border trade in services , 2002 .

[57]  Jong-Soon Kang.  Price impact of restrictions on maritime transport services , 2000 .

[58]  C. Findlay,et al.  Impediments to Trade in Services : Measurements and Policy Implications , 2000 .

[59]  Greg McGuire.  Australia's Restrictions on Trade in Financial , 1998 .

[60]  P. Sauvé.  Assessing the General Agreement on Trade in ServicesHalf-Full or Half-Empty? , 1995 .