Impacts of climate variability on water quality with best management practices in sub‐tropical climate of USA

Efficiency of non-point source pollution control methods may be altered in future climate. This study investigated climate change impacts on sediment and nutrient transport, and efficiency of best management practices (BMPs), in the Upper Pearl River Watershed (UPRW) in Mississippi. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was applied to the UPRW using observed flow, sediment and nutrient data. Water quality samples were collected at three US geological survey gauging stations. The model was successfully calibrated and validated for daily time steps (Nash Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination – R2 up to 0.7) using manual and automatic (sequential uncertainty fitting version 2) methods from February 2010 to May 2011. Future weather scenarios were simulated using the LARS-WG model, a stochastic weather generator, with Community Climate System Model, global climate model, which was developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the USA. On the basis of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, climate change scenarios were simulated for the mid (2046–2065) and late (2080–2099) century. Effectiveness of four BMPs (Riparian buffer, stream fencing, sub-surface manure applications and vegetative filter strips) on reducing sediment and nutrient were evaluated in current and future climate conditions. Results show that sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus loadings will be increased up to a maximum of 26.3%, 7.3% and 14.3%, respectively, in future climate conditions. Furthermore, the effectiveness of BMPs on sediment removal will be reduced in future climate conditions, and the efficiency of nitrogen removal will be increased, whereas phosphorus removal efficiency will remain unchanged. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[1]  Richard N. Palmer,et al.  Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin , 2004 .

[2]  Ying Li,et al.  Effects of temperature change on water discharge, and sediment and nutrient loading in the lower Pearl River basin based on SWAT modelling , 2011 .

[3]  D. Nikkami,et al.  Assessing dominant factors affecting soil erosion using a portable rainfall simulator , 2008 .

[4]  Fayçal Bouraoui,et al.  Modelling nitrogen pressure in river basins: A comparison between a statistical approach and the physically-based SWAT model , 2005 .

[5]  R. Kostaschuk,et al.  Suspended sediment transport during tropical‐cyclone floods in Fiji , 2003 .

[6]  J. Meisinger,et al.  Subsurface application of poultry litter in pasture and no-till soils. , 2011, Journal of environmental quality.

[7]  Royce E. Larsen,et al.  Water-quality benefits of having cattle manure deposited away from streams , 1994 .

[8]  Jeffrey R. Arnold,et al.  Integrating soil carbon cycling with that of nitrogen and phosphorus in the watershed model SWAT: Theory and model testing , 2011 .

[9]  J. Nash,et al.  River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles☆ , 1970 .

[10]  John R. Williams,et al.  LARGE AREA HYDROLOGIC MODELING AND ASSESSMENT PART I: MODEL DEVELOPMENT 1 , 1998 .

[11]  Pushpam Kumar.  Agriculture (Chapter8) in IPCC, 2007: Climate change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007 .

[12]  Shengtian Yang,et al.  Coupling Xinanjiang model and SWAT to simulate agricultural non-point source pollution in Songtao watershed of Hainan, China , 2011 .

[13]  Demetris Koutsoyiannis,et al.  On the credibility of climate predictions , 2008 .

[14]  G. Leeks,et al.  Environmentally sensitive plot-scale timber harvesting: impacts on suspended sediment, bedload and bank erosion dynamics. , 2001, Journal of environmental management.

[15]  B. Croke,et al.  Suspended sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations and exports during storm-events to the Tuross estuary, Australia. , 2009, Journal of environmental management.

[16]  W. Mauser,et al.  PROMET - large scale distributed hydrological modelling to study the impact of climate change on the water flows of mountain watersheds. , 2009 .

[17]  Robert L. Wilby,et al.  Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment: River Kennet, UK , 2006 .

[18]  Fayçal Bouraoui,et al.  Impact of Climate Change on the Water Cycle and Nutrient Losses in a Finnish Catchment , 2004 .

[19]  Mazdak Arabi,et al.  Modeling long-term water quality impact of structural BMPs , 2006 .

[20]  B. Santer,et al.  Penetration of Human-Induced Warming into the World's Oceans , 2005, Science.

[21]  Jeffrey G. Arnold,et al.  EVALUATION OF SWAT IN SIMULATING NITRATE NITROGEN AND ATRAZINE FATES IN A WATERSHED WITH TILES AND POTHOLES , 2006 .

[22]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends , 2007, Nature.

[23]  K. Oost,et al.  Modeling Response of Soil Erosion and Runoff to Changes in Precipitation and Cover , 2005 .

[24]  D. Pierson,et al.  Suspended sediment source areas and future climate impact on soil erosion and sediment yield in a New York City water supply watershed, USA , 2013 .

[25]  Christine A. Shoemaker,et al.  An analysis of high‐flow sediment event data for evaluating model performance , 2005 .

[26]  Eike Luedeling,et al.  Sensitivity of agricultural runoff loads to rising levels of CO2 and climate change in the San Joaquin Valley watershed of California. , 2010, Environmental pollution.

[27]  D. Godwin,et al.  The potential of off-stream livestock watering to reduce water quality impacts , 1996 .

[28]  D. Butterfield,et al.  Assessing the potential impacts of various climate change scenarios on the hydrological regime of the River Kennet at Theale, Berkshire, south-central England, UK: an application and evaluation of the new semi-distributed model, INCA , 2000, The Science of the total environment.

[29]  Misgana K. Muleta,et al.  Sensitivity of a Distributed Watershed Simulation Model to Spatial Scale , 2007 .

[30]  X. Zhang,et al.  A comparison of explicit and implicit spatial downscaling of GCM output for soil erosion and crop production assessments , 2007 .

[31]  Alan F. Hamlet,et al.  PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGIONAL ASSESSMENT: THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WATER RESOURCES OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN 1 , 2000 .

[32]  R. Srinivasan,et al.  Spatial delineation of soil erosion vulnerability in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia , 2009 .

[33]  A. Saleh,et al.  EVALUATION OF SWAT AND HSPF WITHIN BASINS PROGRAM FOR THE UPPER NORTH BOSQUE RIVER WATERSHED IN CENTRAL TEXAS , 2004 .

[34]  A. Ziegler,et al.  Erosion processes in steep terrain—Truths, myths, and uncertainties related to forest management in Southeast Asia , 2006 .

[35]  Sara Maria Lerer,et al.  Parameterisation and scaling of the land surface model for use in a coupled climate-hydrological model , 2012 .

[36]  Doris Schiedek,et al.  Interactions between climate change and contaminants. , 2007, Marine pollution bulletin.

[37]  Andrew J. Wade,et al.  Potential impacts of climate change on water quality and ecology in six UK rivers , 2009 .

[38]  Prem B. Parajuli,et al.  Assessing sensitivity of hydrologic responses to climate change from forested watershed in Mississippi , 2010 .

[39]  Chong-Yu Xu,et al.  Comparison and evaluation of multiple GCMs, statistical downscaling and hydrological models in the study of climate change impacts on runoff , 2012 .

[40]  A. Ducharne,et al.  Long term prospective of the Seine River system: confronting climatic and direct anthropogenic changes. , 2007, The Science of the total environment.

[41]  Saied Mostaghimi,et al.  OFF-STREAM WATER SOURCES FOR GRAZING CATTLE AS A STREAM BANK STABILIZATION AND WATER QUALITY BMP , 1997 .

[42]  D. Monteith,et al.  Long-term increases in surface water dissolved organic carbon: observations, possible causes and environmental impacts. , 2005, Environmental pollution.

[43]  Kyle R Mankin,et al.  Source specific fecal bacteria modeling using soil and water assessment tool model. , 2009, Bioresource technology.

[44]  M. Arabi,et al.  Representation of agricultural conservation practices with SWAT , 2008 .

[45]  Nam-won Kim,et al.  Temporally weighted average curve number method for daily runoff simulation , 2008 .

[46]  K. Taylor,et al.  An overview of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project , 2003 .

[47]  Rollin H. Hotchkiss,et al.  IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MISSOURI RWER BASIN WATER YIELD 1 , 2001 .

[48]  Sean A. Woznicki,et al.  ASSESSING BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICE IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGIES UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS , 2011 .

[49]  Y. Serengil,et al.  Relationship between streamflow and nutrient and sediment losses from an oak-beech forest watershed during an 18-year long monitoring study in Turkey , 2008, European Journal of Forest Research.

[50]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  The Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrology and Water Resources of the Colorado River Basin , 2004 .

[51]  Bernard A. Engel,et al.  Daily streamflow modelling and assessment based on the curve‐number technique , 2002 .

[52]  Jeffrey G. Arnold,et al.  The Soil and Water Assessment Tool: Historical Development, Applications, and Future Research Directions , 2007 .

[53]  Russell B. Brinsfield,et al.  Nutrient and Sediment Removal by Vegetated Filter Stips , 1989 .

[54]  M. V. Vliet,et al.  Impact of summer droughts on the water quality of the Meuse river , 2008 .

[55]  R. Macdonald,et al.  Recent climate change in the Arctic and its impact on contaminant pathways and interpretation of temporal trend data. , 2005, The Science of the total environment.

[56]  J. Arnold,et al.  Assessment of a turfgrass sod best management practice on water quality in a suburban watershed. , 2008, Journal of environmental management.

[57]  Thomas R. Karl,et al.  Secular Trends of Precipitation Amount, Frequency, and Intensity in the United States , 1998 .

[58]  A. Thomson,et al.  Integrated Assessment of Hadley Centre (HadCM2) Climate Change Projections on Agricultural Productivity and Irrigation Water Supply in the Conterminous United States.I. Climate change scenarios and impacts on irrigation water supply simulated with the HUMUS model. , 2003 .

[59]  Bruno Merz,et al.  At what scales do climate variability and land cover change impact on flooding and low flows? , 2007 .

[60]  K. Abbaspour,et al.  Modelling hydrology and water quality in the pre-alpine/alpine Thur watershed using SWAT , 2007 .

[61]  Y. Ouyang,et al.  Assessing the impacts of crop-rotation and tillage on crop yields and sediment yield using a modeling approach , 2013 .

[62]  Kyle R. Mankin,et al.  Applicability of targeting vegetative filter strips to abate fecal bacteria and sediment yield using SWAT , 2008 .

[63]  Christos Makropoulos,et al.  SWAT Parameterization for the Identification of Critical Diffuse Pollution Source Areas under Data Limitations , 2011 .

[64]  Nicola Fohrer,et al.  Modelling point and diffuse source pollution of nitrate in a rural lowland catchment using the SWAT model , 2010 .

[65]  H. Fowler,et al.  Large scale surface – subsurface hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on groundwater reserves , 2009 .

[66]  Denis Ruelland,et al.  Assessing impacts of alternative land use and agricultural practices on nitrate pollution at the catchment scale , 2011 .

[67]  I. Delpla,et al.  Impacts of climate change on surface water quality in relation to drinking water production. , 2009, Environment international.

[68]  O. Edenhofer,et al.  Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective , 2007 .

[69]  Kirk Hatfield,et al.  Surface runoff contribution of nitrogen during storm events in a forested watershed , 2007 .

[70]  Jeffrey G. Arnold,et al.  Model Evaluation Guidelines for Systematic Quantification of Accuracy in Watershed Simulations , 2007 .

[71]  M. Semenov.  Development of high-resolution UKCIP02-based climate change scenarios in the UK , 2007 .