Comparative distribution and invasion risk of snakehead (Channidae) and Asian carp (Cyprinidae) species in North America

As nonindigenous species are a major threat to global biodiversity, cost-effective management requires iden- tification of areas at high risk of establishment. Here we predict suitable environments of 14 high-profile species of nonindigenous snakehead (Channidae) and Asian carp (Cyprinidae) species in North America based upon ecological niche modelling and compare the driving environmental variables for the two fish groups. Snakeheads distributions were correlated with thermal factors, whereas those of Asian carps were related mainly to precipitation. Predicted suit- able ranges for these nonindigenous species can be divided into three main areas: Mexico and the southern United States (five species); Mexico and the United States up to ~35 °N (three species); and most of Mexico, continuous United States, and southern Canada (six species). For the province of Ontario, we combined the number and location of aquarium stores and live fish markets with predicted areas of suitable environments to identify areas at risk of introduction and establishment. We identified several watersheds draining into northwestern Lake Ontario as having the highest risk, highlighting the increased predictive value of this approach. Resume : Comme les poissons non indigenes representent une menace importante a la biodiversite globale, une gestion efficace du point de vue des couts requiert l'identification des zones ou le risque d'etablissement est eleve. Nous predi- sons ici les milieux adequats pour l'etablissement de 14 especes non indigenes bien connues de poissons-serpents (Channidae) et de carpes asiatiques (Cyprinidae) en Amerique du Nord d'apres la modelisation ecologique des niches et nous comparons les variables du milieu qui regissent l'etablissement des deux groupes de poissons. Les repartitions des poissons-serpents sont en correlation avec les facteurs thermiques, alors que celles des carpes asiatiques sont reliees surtout aux precipitations. Les aires adequates de repartition predites pour ces les poissons non indigenes se retrouvent dans trois regions principales: le Mexique et le sud des Etats-Unis (cinq especes), le Mexique et les Etats-Unis jusqu'a ~35°N (trois especes) et le Mexique presque dans son entier, les Etats-Unis continentaux et le sud du Canada (six es- peces). Pour l'Ontario, la combinaison du nombre et de l'emplacement des boutiques d'aquariophilie et des marches de poissons vivants, d'une part, et des regions predites a habitats convenables, d'autre part, permet d'identifier les zones a risque pour les introductions et les etablissements. Nous identifions plusieurs bassins versants qui se jettent dans le nord-ouest du lac Ontario comme etant a risque tres eleve; ces resultats soulignent la valeur predictive de notre metho- dologie.

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