Realism in eyewitness confidence as a function of type of event witnessed and repeated recall

This study investigated how the type of event witnessed and a repeated test schedule for confidence influenced the realism in confidence judgments. The experimental design contrasted 2 film versions (a violent and a nonviolent scenario) and 3 tests of confidence (immediate, repeated, and delayed). On average, for all single items, participants were highly overconfident in their judgments. However, the same participants severely underestimated their own performance when they, at the end of the test session, were asked to provide an estimate of how many questions they thought they had answered correctly. Whereas the effects on realism in confidence for the 2 different film versions were small, the realism in witnesses' confidence judgments increased when participants repeated their confidence ratings. The theoretical and forensical implications of these findings are discussed.

[1]  Elizabeth F. Loftus,et al.  Eyewitness testimony: Civil and criminal , 1987 .

[2]  G. Keren.  Calibration and probability judgements: Conceptual and methodological issues , 1991 .

[3]  R. Lindsay,et al.  Can People Detect Eyewitness-Identification Accuracy Within and Across Situations? , 1981 .

[4]  C. M. Allwood.  Considering the Knowledge You Have: Effects on Realism in Confidence Judgements , 1996 .

[5]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[6]  G. Gigerenzer.  Why the distinction between single-event probabilities and frequencies is important for psychology (and vice versa). , 1994 .

[7]  G. Wells,et al.  Eyewitness identification confidence , 1994 .

[8]  Steven D. Penrod,et al.  CHOOSING, CONFIDENCE, AND ACCURACY : A META-ANALYSIS OF THE CONFIDENCE-ACCURACY RELATION IN EYEWITNESS IDENTIFICATION STUDIES , 1995 .

[9]  Kenneth A. Deffenbacher,et al.  Correlation of eyewitness accuracy and confidence: Optimality hypothesis revisited. , 1987 .

[10]  D. Dunning,et al.  Examining the generality of eyewitness hypermnesia: A close look at time delay and question type , 1992 .

[11]  Steven D. Penrod,et al.  Juror decision making in eyewitness identification cases , 1988 .

[12]  H. Crombag,et al.  Anchored Narratives: The Psychology of Criminal Evidence , 1994 .

[13]  Elizabeth F. Loftus,et al.  Viewing eyewitness research from a metacognitive perspective. , 1994 .

[14]  Kenneth A. Deffenbacher,et al.  Eyewitness accuracy and confidence , 1980 .

[15]  T. O. Nelson.  Metacognition : core readings , 1992 .

[16]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art , 1977 .

[17]  Lost but not forgotten details: repeated eyewitness recall leads to reminiscence but not hypermnesia. , 1994 .

[18]  Elizabeth F. Loftus,et al.  Witness for the Defense: The Accused, the Eyewitness, and the Expert Who Puts Memory on Trial , 1992 .

[19]  Carl Martin Allwood,et al.  Response selection strategies and realism of confidence judgments , 1987 .

[20]  Gary L. Wells,et al.  The malleability of eyewitness confidence: co-witness and perseverance effects , 1994 .

[21]  Steven D. Penrod,et al.  Mistaken Identification: The Eyewitness, Psychology and the Law , 1995 .

[22]  Gary L. Wells,et al.  The Tractability of Eyewitness Confidence and Its Implications for Triers of Fact , 1981 .

[23]  Rosaleen Ryan,et al.  Effects of biased information on the relationship between eyewitness confidence and accuracy , 1991 .

[24]  Saul M. Kassin,et al.  Eyewitness Identification: Retrospective Self-Awareness and the Accuracy-Confidence Correlation , 1985 .

[25]  B. Clifford,et al.  Effects of the Type of Incident and the Number of Perpetrators on Eyewitness Memory , 1981 .

[26]  C. M. Allwood,et al.  Mood and realism of confidence judgements of one's own answers to general knowledge questions. , 1991, Scandinavian journal of psychology.

[27]  M. R. Leippe,et al.  Effects of integrative memorial and cognitive processes on the correspondence of eyewitness accuracy and confidence , 1980 .

[28]  R. Lindsay,et al.  Accuracy, confidence, and juror perceptions in eyewitness identification. , 1979, The Journal of applied psychology.

[29]  G. Gigerenzer,et al.  Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikian theory of confidence. , 1991, Psychological review.

[30]  S. Penrod,et al.  Moderators of the confidence-accuracy correlation in face recognition: The role of information processing and base-rates , 1989 .

[31]  J. Metcalfe,et al.  Metacognition : knowing about knowing , 1994 .

[32]  Roy S. Malpass,et al.  Psychological issues in eyewitness identification. , 1996 .

[33]  A. Tversky,et al.  The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence , 1992, Cognitive Psychology.

[34]  B. Clifford,et al.  Individual and situational factors in eyewitness testimony. , 1978 .

[35]  P. Ellsworth,et al.  Effect of choosing an incorrect photograph on a later identification by an eyewitness. , 1980, The Journal of applied psychology.