Generalized models for estimation of global solar radiation based on sunshine duration and detailed comparison with the existing: A case study for India

Abstract The main objectives of this work are the comparison and the development of models for estimating mean monthly global solar radiation in India. Meteorological data for a 15-year period (1986–2000) are used for 23 locations across India from Indian Meteorological Department, Pune. Quality control of data is performed and appropriate limits were established. From the literature, 104 models were nominated which correlate clearness index to relative sunshine duration. Models were subsequently applied to the used data. Furthermore, 7 new ‘generalized’ models are developed using all data. Comparison and performance assessment of all the models is conducted using some well-known statistical indicators. Moreover, statistical indicators were scaled to obtain Global Performance Indicator which is subsequently used to rank the models. According to the results, the Global Performance Indicator takes values between −7.2627 and 0.9065. The developed generalized models present superior performance compared to those nominated from literature. Top ranking models are used to assess solar radiation for six stations under different climates and it is established that these models have strong estimation capabilities. So, this study determines the most precise model demonstrating generalized behavior to assess global solar radiation anywhere in the region.

[1]  Arif Hepbasli,et al.  Comparison of solar radiation correlations for İzmir, Turkey , 2002 .

[2]  Vijay Nehra,et al.  Solar energy deployment for sustainable future of India: Hybrid SWOC-AHP analysis , 2017 .

[3]  Kasra Mohammadi,et al.  Prediction of horizontal diffuse solar radiation using clearness index based empirical models; A case study , 2016 .

[4]  E. Bellos,et al.  Development of empirical models for estimation of global solar radiation exergy in India , 2019, Journal of Cleaner Production.

[5]  Yog Raj Sood,et al.  Solar energy in India: Strategies, policies, perspectives and future potential , 2012 .

[7]  Sancho Salcedo-Sanz,et al.  An efficient neuro-evolutionary hybrid modelling mechanism for the estimation of daily global solar radiation in the Sunshine State of Australia , 2018 .

[8]  Basharat Jamil,et al.  Statistical analysis of sunshine based global solar radiation (GSR) models for tropical wet and dry climatic Region in Nagpur, India: A case study , 2018 .

[9]  C. Ertekin,et al.  Comparison of some existing models for estimating global solar radiation for Antalya (Turkey) , 2000 .

[10]  Prashanta Kumar Patra,et al.  Forecasting of solar energy with application for a growing economy like India: Survey and implication , 2017 .

[11]  E. A. Ogujor,et al.  Evaluation of various global solar radiation models for Nigeria , 2016 .

[12]  Kourosh Qaderi,et al.  Calibration of Angstrom equation for estimating Solar Radiation using Meta-Heuristic Harmony Search Algorithm (Case study: Mashhad-East of Iran) , 2012 .

[13]  F. J. Newland,et al.  A study of solar radiation models for the coastal region of South China , 1989 .

[14]  Sunday E. Etuk,et al.  Relationship Between Global Solar Radiation and Sunshine Duration for Onne, Nigeria , 2003 .

[15]  I. T. Toğrul,et al.  Global solar radiation over Turkey: comparison of predicted and measured data , 2002 .

[16]  K. Hinrichsen,et al.  The Ångström formula with coefficients having a physical meaning , 1994 .

[17]  C. W. Tong,et al.  A new hybrid support vector machine–wavelet transform approach for estimation of horizontal global solar radiation , 2015 .

[18]  Gasser E. Hassan,et al.  New Temperature-based Models for Predicting Global Solar Radiation , 2016 .

[19]  B. Jamil,et al.  Comparative analysis of diffuse solar radiation models based on sky-clearness index and sunshine period for humid-subtropical climatic region of India: A case study , 2017 .

[20]  Perry Sadorsky,et al.  The role of globalization on the recent evolution of energy demand in India: Implications for sustainable development , 2016 .

[21]  Wenmin Qin,et al.  Comparison of deterministic and data-driven models for solar radiation estimation in China , 2018 .

[22]  Bulent Yaniktepe,et al.  Establishing new model for predicting the global solar radiation on horizontal surface , 2015 .

[23]  Milan Despotovic,et al.  Review and statistical analysis of different global solar radiation sunshine models , 2015 .

[24]  F. Besharat,et al.  Empirical models for estimating global solar radiation: A review and case study , 2013 .

[25]  Ali Mostafaeipour,et al.  Optimized fixed tilt for incident solar energy maximization on flat surfaces located in the Algerian Big South , 2018, Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments.

[26]  K. Bakirci.  Correlations for estimation of daily global solar radiation with hours of bright sunshine in Turkey , 2009 .

[27]  I. Loghmari,et al.  Performance comparison of two global solar radiation models for spatial interpolation purposes , 2018 .

[28]  B. Rudolf,et al.  World Map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated , 2006 .

[29]  M. Premalatha,et al.  Models for forecasting monthly mean daily global solar radiation from in-situ measurements: Application in Tropical Climate, India , 2017, Urban Climate.

[30]  J. Mubiru,et al.  Estimation of monthly average daily global solar irradiation using artificial neural networks , 2008 .

[32]  Hilmi Cenk Bayrakçi,et al.  The development of empirical models for estimating global solar radiation on horizontal surface: A case study , 2018 .

[33]  M. J. Ahmad,et al.  Development of Models for the Estimation of Global Solar Radiation Over Selected Stations in India , 2016 .

[34]  Boluwaji M. Olomiyesan,et al.  Comparative Study of Ground Measured, Satellite-Derived, and Estimated Global Solar Radiation Data in Nigeria , 2016 .

[35]  Kasra Mohammadi,et al.  A support vector machine–firefly algorithm-based model for global solar radiation prediction , 2015 .

[36]  M. Chendo,et al.  Predicting the components of the total hemispherical solar radiation from sunshine duration measurements in Lagos, Nigeria , 1994 .

[37]  A. Katiyar,et al.  Simple correlation for estimating the global solar radiation on horizontal surfaces in India , 2010 .

[38]  Laurel Saito,et al.  ANFIS, SVM and ANN soft-computing techniques to estimate daily global solar radiation in a warm sub-humid environment , 2017 .

[39]  B. Akinoglu,et al.  Construction of a quadratic model using modified Ångstrom coefficients to estimate global solar radiation , 1990 .

[40]  Arif Hepbasli,et al.  Global Solar Radiation Potential, Part 1: Model Development , 2006 .

[41]  A. T. Siddiqui,et al.  Estimation of monthly mean diffuse solar radiation over India: Performance of two variable models under different climatic zones , 2018 .

[42]  P. Poggi,et al.  Correlations for direct normal and global horizontal irradiation on a French Mediterranean site , 1991 .

[43]  Krishan K. Pandey,et al.  Evolution of solar energy in India: A review , 2014 .

[44]  Ahmet Sarı,et al.  Model selection for global and diffuse radiation over the Central Black Sea (CBS) region of Turkey , 2005 .

[45]  A. Khogali,et al.  Global and diffuse solar irradiance in Yemen (Y.A.R.) , 1983 .

[46]  S. Klein.  Calculation of monthly average insolation on tilted surfaces , 1976 .

[47]  O. Coulibaly,et al.  Correlation of Global Solar Radiation of Eight Synoptic Stations in Burkina Faso Based on Linear and Multiple Linear Regression Methods , 2016 .

[48]  P. Tiwari,et al.  Recent developments of solar energy in India: Perspectives, strategies and future goals , 2016 .

[49]  Yang Jianping,et al.  Estimating daily global radiation using two types of revised models in China , 2006 .

[50]  Basharat Jamil,et al.  Comparison of empirical models to estimate monthly mean diffuse solar radiation from measured data: Case study for humid-subtropical climatic region of India , 2017 .

[51]  Bülent Aksoy.  Estimated monthly average global radiation for Turkey and its comparison with observations , 1997 .

[52]  A. Angstrom.  Solar and terrestrial radiation. Report to the international commission for solar research on actinometric investigations of solar and atmospheric radiation , 2007 .

[53]  Shailesh Kumar,et al.  Analysis of monthly average daily global radiation and monthly average sunshine duration at two tropical locations , 1993 .

[54]  Arif Hepbasli,et al.  Solar Radiation Models. Part 2: Comparison and Developing New Models , 2004 .

[55]  H. P. Garg,et al.  Correlation of monthly-average daily global, diffuse and beam radiation with bright sunshine hours , 1985 .

[56]  Shailendra Rathore,et al.  Solar power utility sector in india: Challenges and opportunities , 2018 .

[57]  A. T. Siddiqui,et al.  Generalized models for estimation of diffuse solar radiation based on clearness index and sunshine duration in India: Applicability under different climatic zones , 2017 .

[58]  Basharat Jamil,et al.  Empirical models for estimation of diffuse solar radiation based on measured data for humid-subtropical climatic region of India , 2017 .

[59]  J. Twidell,et al.  Distribution of global insolation over Pakistan , 1989 .

[60]  Sajal Ghosh,et al.  100 GW solar power in India by 2022 – A critical review , 2017 .

[61]  M. R. Rietveld,et al.  A new method for estimating the regression coefficients in the formula relating solar radiation to sunshine , 1978 .

[62]  A. Soler,et al.  Monthly specific Rietveld's correlations , 1990 .

[63]  P. Luhanga,et al.  Characteristics of solar radiation at Sebele, Gaborone, Botswana , 1990 .

[64]  Atul Sharma,et al.  Solar energy market developments in India , 2016 .

[65]  J. Hay.  Calculation of monthly mean solar radiation for horizontal and inclined surfaces , 1979 .

[66]  B. Jamil,et al.  Estimation of diffuse solar radiation in humid-subtropical climatic region of India: Comparison of diffuse fraction and diffusion coefficient models , 2017 .

[67]  O. P. Singh,et al.  Estimation of global solar radiation in Uttar Pradesh (India) and comparison of some existing correlations , 1993 .

[68]  Gladius Lewis,et al.  An empirical relation for estimating global irradiation for Tennessee, U.S.A. , 1992 .

[69]  G. Singh,et al.  Effects of air pollution for estimating global solar radiation in India , 2017 .

[70]  Zhengrong Li,et al.  Evaluation of global solar radiation models for Shanghai, China , 2014 .

[71]  M. Tiris,et al.  Correlations of monthly-average daily global, diffuse and beam radiations with hours of bright sunshine in Gebze, Turkey , 1996 .

[72]  Laurel Saito,et al.  Estimating daily global solar radiation by day of the year in six cities located in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico , 2017 .

[73]  M. A. Alsaad.  Characteristic distribution of global solar radiation for Amman, Jordan , 1990 .

[74]  Intikhab Ulfat,et al.  Empirical Models for the Correlation of Monthly Average Daily Global Solar Radiation with Hours of Sunshine on a Horizontal Surface at Karachi, Pakistan , 2004 .

[75]  Liang Zhao,et al.  Global solar radiation estimation with sunshine duration in Tibet, China , 2011 .

[76]  T. Samuel,et al.  Estimation of global radiation for Sri Lanka , 1991 .

[77]  Burak Barutcu,et al.  Estimating daily Global solar radiation with graphical user interface in Eastern Mediterranean region of Turkey , 2018 .

[78]  Taqiy Eddine Boukelia,et al.  Introducing the best model for estimation the monthly mean daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface (Case study: Algeria) , 2014 .

[79]  Basharat Jamil,et al.  Estimation of solar radiation and optimum tilt angles for south-facing surfaces in Humid Subtropical Climatic Region of India , 2016 .

[80]  Harsha Pandey,et al.  Estimating Angstrom-Prescott Coefficients for India and Developing a Correlation between Sunshine Hours and Global Solar Radiation for India , 2013 .

[81]  Ozgur Kisi,et al.  Comparison of four heuristic regression techniques in solar radiation modeling: Kriging method vs RSM, MARS and M5 model tree , 2018 .

[82]  Isaac N. Itodo,et al.  A model for determining the global solar radiation for Makurdi, Nigeria , 2011 .

[83]  R. Sever,et al.  Estimation of monthly average, daily, horizontal diffuse radiation in Turkey , 1991 .

[84]  V. Bahel,et al.  A correlation for estimation of global solar radiation , 1987 .

[85]  Javier Almorox,et al.  Global solar radiation estimation using sunshine duration in Spain , 2004 .

[86]  K. Zabara,et al.  Estimation of the global solar radiation in Greece , 1986 .

[87]  N. Sengar,et al.  A comparative study of correlation functions for estimation of monthly mean daily global solar radiation for Jaipur, Rajasthan (India) , 2012 .

[88]  J. Antonanzas,et al.  Estimation methods for global solar radiation: Case study evaluation of five different approaches in central Spain , 2017 .

[89]  Tamer Khatib,et al.  A novel hybrid model for hourly global solar radiation prediction using random forests technique and firefly algorithm , 2017 .

[90]  Lifeng Wu,et al.  Evaluation and development of temperature-based empirical models for estimating daily global solar radiation in humid regions , 2018 .

[91]  Zhou Jin,et al.  General formula for estimation of monthly average daily global solar radiation in China , 2005 .