Seasonal prediction of blocking frequency: Results from winter ensemble experiments

The patterns which explain the largest fraction of the large‐scale variability over the Euro‐Atlantic and the Pacific regions are described using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction analysis data. In the description, special attention is given to the relation between these patterns and local weather regimes. The dynamical characteristics of each regime are found to be dependent on its relation with the basic flow over the region of its location.

[1]  F. Molteni,et al.  Wintertime variability in the Euro‐Atlantic region in observations and in ECMWF seasonal ensemble experiments , 2000 .

[2]  Tim N. Palmer,et al.  Seasonal skill and predictability of ECMWF PROVOST ensembles , 2000 .

[3]  L. Ferranti,et al.  Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking as simulated by 15 atmospheric general circulation models in the period 1979–1988 , 1998 .

[4]  J. Wallace,et al.  The Arctic oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields , 1998 .

[5]  R. Vautard,et al.  The dynamics of Euro‐Atlantic blocking onsets , 1998 .

[6]  F. Molteni,et al.  Patterns of low-frequency variability in a three-level quasi-geostrophic model , 1997 .

[7]  Jeffrey L. Anderson,et al.  The Role of High- and Low-Frequency Dynamics in Blocking Formation , 1997 .

[8]  J. Hurrell,et al.  DECADAL VARIATIONS IN CLIMATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION , 1997 .

[9]  F. Molteni,et al.  Sensitivity of the ECMWF model northern winter climate to model formulation , 1996 .

[10]  J. Hurrell.  Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on northern hemisphere temperature , 1996 .

[11]  R. Vautard,et al.  Weather Regimes: Recurrence and Quasi Stationarity , 1995 .

[12]  F. Molteni,et al.  Impact of localized tropical and extratropical SST anomalies in ensembles of seasonal GCM integrations , 1994 .

[13]  A. Navarra,et al.  Northern and Southern hemisphere seasonal variability of blocking frequency and predictability , 1994 .

[14]  Tim Palmer,et al.  The prospects for seasonal forecasting—A review paper , 1994 .

[15]  G. Plaut,et al.  Spells of Low-Frequency Oscillations and Weather Regimes in the Northern Hemisphere. , 1994 .

[16]  M. Ghil,et al.  Multiple Flow Regimes in the Northern Hemisphere Winter. Part I: Methodology and Hemispheric Regimes , 1993 .

[17]  Jeffery C. Rogers,et al.  Patterns of Low-Frequency Monthly Sea Level Pressure Variability (1899–1986) and Associated Wave Cyclone Frequencies , 1990 .

[18]  Robert Vautard,et al.  Multiple Weather Regimes over the North Atlantic: Analysis of Precursors and Successors , 1990 .

[19]  D. Karoly,et al.  Examples of the Horizontal Propagation of Quasi-stationary Waves , 1989 .

[20]  Robert E. Kistler,et al.  Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting (DERF) at the National Meteorological Center , 1989 .

[21]  B. Hoskins,et al.  The Generation of Global Rotational Flow by Steady Idealized Tropical Divergence , 1988 .

[22]  B. Hoskins,et al.  A Diagnostic Study of the Dynamics of the Northern Hemisphere Winter of 1985‐86 , 1987 .

[23]  A. Barnston,et al.  Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns , 1987 .

[24]  Michael Ghil,et al.  Persistent Anomalies, Blocking and Variations in Atmospheric Predictability , 1985 .

[25]  R. A. Plumb.  On the Three-Dimensional Propagation of Stationary Waves , 1985 .

[26]  Brian J. Hoskins,et al.  The Steady Linear Response of a Spherical Atmosphere to Thermal and Orographic Forcing , 1981 .

[27]  J. Wallace,et al.  Teleconnections in the Geopotential Height Field during the Northern Hemisphere Winter , 1981 .

[28]  J. S. A. Green,et al.  THE WEATHER DURING JULY 1976: SOME DYNAMICAL CONSIDERATIONS OF THE DROUGHT , 1977 .

[29]  Franco Molteni,et al.  Long‐term fluctuations in the statistical properties of low‐frequency variability: Dynamical origin and predictability , 1998 .

[30]  G. Shutts.  A case study of eddy forcing during an atlantic blocking episode , 1986 .

[31]  Randall M. Dole,et al.  Persistent Anomalies of the Extratropical Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Circulation: Structure , 1982 .