Power System Probabilistic Production Simulation With Wind Generation Based on Available Capacity Distribution

The power system operation simulation including large wind turbine generations,which is based on the Monte Carlo method,is of good accuracy and extensive adaptability.However,the computation time of the simulation is long and this limits its application.The other theoretical methodologies have some disadvantages,for example,the wind turbine generations could not be described precisely,or it is difficult to deal with the multi wind farms and the correlations among them.In order to overcome these disadvantages,a probabilistic production simulation algorithm for power systems including wind farms was proposed based on available capacity distribution.The time-varying characteristics of the load and wind turbines were considered in the algorithm.The auto-regressive moving average(ARMA) time series model was applied to simulate the wind speed,and the cumulants method was used to calculate the available capacity distribution.The proposed algorithm could better describe the characteristics of the wind turbine generations,and is of high computing efficiency.Multi wind farms and their correlations are taken into consideration in the algorithm,and the probability and the energy of the abandoned wind power caused by the limitation of the minimum output can be calculated.The effectiveness of the method was verified based on the data of IEEE-RTS system.