Markov chains with exponentially small transition probabilities: First exit problem from a general domain. II. The general case

In this paper we consider aperiodic ergodic Markov chains with transition probabilities exponentially small in a large parameter β. We extend to the general, not necessarily reversible case the analysis, started in part I of this work, of the first exit problem from a general domainQ containing many stable equilibria (attracting equilibrium points for the β=∞ dynamics). In particular we describe the tube of typical trajectories during the first excursion outsideQ.