A Probabilistic Approach for Prognostics of Complex Rotary Machinery Systems

............................................................................................................................................... ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ......................................................................................................................... v LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................. ix LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................... xii CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Motivation .............................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Research Objective .............................................................................................................................. 3 1.3 Contributions and Broader Impacts .............................................................................................. 4 1.4 Dissertation Organization ................................................................................................................. 6 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE SURVEY ON RELATED RESEARCH .............................................. 8 2.1 Prognostics for Complex Systems .................................................................................................. 8 2.2 Research Gaps ..................................................................................................................................... 12 CHAPTER 3 BAYESIAN NETWORK FOR PROGNOSTICS ...................................................... 16 3.1 A Systematic Methodology .............................................................................................................. 16 3.2 Bayesian Theory and Bayesian Networks ................................................................................. 18 3.3 An Example of Using BBN for Prognosis Application ............................................................. 26 CHAPTER 4 DATA-­‐DRIVEN PROGNOSTICS – WIND TURBINE PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT AND FAULT DETECTION ....................................................................................... 39 4.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 39 4.2 Motivation of Applying Bayesian Technique ............................................................................ 47 4.3 A Bayesian based Approach for Performance Assessment ................................................. 54

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