Risk Assessment of Vertical Breakwaters -- A Case Study in Turkey

In the reliability-risk assessment, the second order reliability index (βⅡ) method and the Conditional ExpectationMonte Carlo (CEMC) simulation are interrelated as a new Level Ⅲ approach for the analysis of the safety level of theDalaman yacht harbor vertical wall breakwater in Turkey. The missing wave data of the Dalaman measurement station arehindcasted by use of muhi-layer feed-forward neural networks with the steepest descent and conjugate gradient algorithms.The structural failure probabilities of sliding and overturning failure modes are forecasted by approximation of the failure sur-face with a second-degree polynomial of an equal curvature at the design point. In the new approach, for each randomlygenerated load and tide combination, the joint failure probability reflects both the occurrence probability of loading conditionand the structural failure risk at the limit state. The approach can be applied to risk assessment of vertical breakwaters inshort CPU durations of portable computers.