USABLE SCIENCE: AN ASSESSMENT OF LONG-TERM SEASONAL FORECASTS AMONGST FARMERS IN RURAL AREAS OF SOURTH AFRICA

ABSTRACT The science of long-term climate seasonal forecasts is well developed both locally and internationally. While much is done to produce forecasts little has been done to assess their uptake and value particularly for rural farmers in South Africa. The use and uptake of seasonal climate forecasts by ‘emerging’, commercial farmers in the North West Province during the past 1997/98 season (also an El Niño Southern Oscillation event) is examined. Access to resources, credit and a complex history of land ownership by ‘emerging’ and ‘developing’ farmers in South Africa constrains usage of seasonal climate information. Calls for a much more nuanced approach to the investigation and mainstreaming or retailing of the forecasts are made.

[1]  Chester F. Ropelewski,et al.  Surface Temperature Patterns Associated with the Southern Oscillation , 1992 .

[2]  Seasonal rainfall forecasting for Africa part II—application and impact assessment , 1992 .

[3]  E. Klopper.  The use of seasonal forecasts in South Africa during the 1997/98 rainfall season , 1999 .

[4]  W. Easterling.  Subscribers to the NOAA Monthly and Seasonal Weather Outlook , 1986 .

[5]  C. F. Ropelewski,et al.  Precipitation Patterns Associated with the High Index Phase of the Southern Oscillation , 1989 .

[6]  E. Francis.  Learning from the Local: Rural Livelihoods in Ditsobotla, North West Province , 1999 .

[7]  Gidon Eshel,et al.  Forecasting Zimbabwean maize yield using eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature , 1994, Nature.

[8]  Phillip A. Arkin,et al.  The IRI Seasonal Climate Prediction System and the 1997/98 El Niño Event , 1999 .

[9]  Steven T. Sonka,et al.  Valuing Climate Forecast Information , 1987 .

[10]  W. Landman,et al.  Change in the association between Indian Ocean sea‐surface temperatures and summer rainfall over South Africa and Namibia , 1999 .

[11]  M. Buchanan-Smith,et al.  Food Security: Let Them Eat Information , 1994 .

[12]  M. Jury.  REGIONAL TELECONNECTION PATTERNS ASSOCIATED WITH SUMMER RAINFALL OVER SOUTH AFRICA, NAMIBIA AND ZIMBABWE , 1996 .

[13]  Simon J. Mason,et al.  Climatic variability and change over southern Africa: a reflection on underlying processes , 1997 .

[14]  C. Vogel,et al.  Historical evidence for Southern Oscillation‐southern African rainfall relationships , 1990 .

[15]  P. Lamb,et al.  Utilising a farm‐level decision model to help prioritise future climate prediction research needs , 1997 .

[16]  Lawrence L. Greischar,et al.  Prediction of the Summer Rainfall over South Africa , 1995 .

[17]  B. Hewitson,et al.  REGIONALISATION OF DAILY PRECIPITATION IN BOTSWANA 1972–1989 , 1995 .

[18]  Willem A. Landman,et al.  Operational long‐lead prediction of South African rainfall using canonical correlation analysis , 1999 .

[19]  J. Drummond.  Rural land use and agricultural production in Dinokana Village, Bophuthatswana , 1990 .