Forecasting long‐term paper demand in emerging markets

Purpose – Typically, the graphic paper demand is being forecasted with the development of GDP, population and the price of paper. Recently, diffusion of information and communication technologies (ICT) has been identified as one possible driver of its consumption. It could be assumed that in emerging markets paper demand is a combination of these classical and new factors.Design/methodology/approach – The research examines the situation in the emerging Russian market with panel data regression analysis, accompanied with system dynamics simulation using Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis. So, the paper integrates different quantitative approaches to sketch long‐term paper demand forecasts through different alternative scenarios.Findings – Results show that mobile telephones are complementary to both newsprint and magazine paper demand and the internet is a substitute, but these two factors are still relatively small compared to the effect of GDP per capita.Research limitations/implications – This research is...

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