Probabilistic Modeling of Bridge Deck Unseating during Hurricane Events

Although coastal bridges have exhibited significant susceptibility to damage during hurricane-induced wave and surge events, probabilistic models are lacking to quantify the vulnerability of bridges under a range of structural or hazard parameters and support hurricane risk assessment and mitigation activities. This paper introduces a computationally efficient methodology to assess the fragility, or conditional failure probability, of bridges, targeting the deck shifting or unseating failure mode, which is a predominant severe mode of failure for vast inventories of simply supported span bridges. The method propagates uncertainties in parameters affecting the structural capacity and demand, such as mass density, connection strength, material properties, workmanship, and wave parameters. Fragility surfaces are derived in which failure probability is presented over a range of relative surge elevation and wave heights. The application of this technique is shown through a regional fragility assessment of 136 bridges in the greater Houston area. The results reveal that a failure zone emerges in the fragility surfaces of the bridges studied, with a dramatic transition in probability of failure. Additionally, bridges with similar trends in fragility surfaces can be readily classified based on estimates of their mean mass per span length. Finally, application of the new vulnerability models in a case-study regional risk assessment for Hurricane Ike reveals consistency with observed damage and also offers an opportunity for future studies to investigate alternative scenarios for risk-mitigation planning or extensions of the methodology to consider other regions or failure modes.

[1]  Donald T. Resio,et al.  A review of the climatological characteristics of landfalling Gulf hurricanes for wind, wave, and surge hazard estimation , 2010 .

[2]  Ayman M. Okeil,et al.  Survey of Short- and Medium-Span Bridge Damage Induced by Hurricane Katrina , 2008 .

[3]  D. Max Sheppard,et al.  Wave Loading on Bridge Decks , 2009 .

[4]  Reginald DesRoches,et al.  Retrofitted Bridge Fragility Analysis for Typical Classes of Multispan Bridges , 2009 .

[5]  Jamie E. Padgett,et al.  Statistical analysis of coastal bridge vulnerability based on empirical evidence from Hurricane Katrina , 2012 .

[6]  Christopher Higgins,et al.  Large-scale laboratory observations of wave forces on a highway bridge superstructure , 2011 .

[7]  Armen Der Kiureghian,et al.  PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC DEMAND MODELS AND FRAGILITY ESTIMATES FOR RC BRIDGES , 2003 .

[8]  J. P. Le Roux.  A simple method to determine breaker height and depth for different deepwater wave height/length ratios and sea floor slopes , 2007 .

[9]  Masanobu Shinozuka,et al.  Nonlinear Static Procedure for Fragility Curve Development , 2000 .

[10]  Thomas Schumacher,et al.  Large-Scale Wave Flume Experiments on Highway Bridge Superstructures Exposed to Hurricane Wave Forces , 2008 .

[11]  J. K. Panigrahi,et al.  Numerical hindcast of extreme waves , 2010 .

[12]  M. Longuet-Higgins.  On the joint distribution of wave periods and amplitudes in a random wave field , 1983, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. A. Mathematical and Physical Sciences.

[13]  D. Max Sheppard,et al.  Storm Surge and Wave Loading on Bridge Superstructures , 2009 .

[14]  Jamie E. Padgett,et al.  Coastal Bridge Reliability during Hurricane Events: Comparison of Fragility Curves by Static and Dynamic Simulation , 2011 .

[15]  P Kaplan,et al.  THEORETICAL ANALYSIS OF WAVE IMPACT FORCES ON PLATFORM DECK STRUCTURES , 1995 .

[16]  Sang-Hoon Kim,et al.  PDF interpolation technique for seismic fragility analysis of bridges , 2007 .

[17]  Yang Yang,et al.  A Numerical Simulation Method of Typhoon Waves , 2009 .

[18]  Reginald DesRoches,et al.  Seismic fragility of typical bridges in moderate seismic zones , 2004 .

[19]  Howard H. M. Hwang,et al.  Probabilistic descriptions of resistance of safety-related structures in nuclear plants , 1985 .

[20]  Robert G. Bea,et al.  Wave Forces on Decks of Offshore Platforms , 1999 .

[21]  Giovanni Cuomo,et al.  Wave-in-deck loads on coastal bridges and the role of air , 2009 .

[22]  K. Cheung,et al.  Modeling of storm-induced coastal flooding for emergency management , 2003 .

[23]  Stanisław Ryszard Massel,et al.  Ocean Surface Waves: Their Physics and Prediction , 1996 .

[24]  Stephen A Cauffman,et al.  Performance of physical structures in Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita :: a reconnaissance report , 2006 .

[25]  Haihong Zhao,et al.  Hydrodynamic Investigation of Coastal Bridge Collapse during Hurricane Katrina , 2009 .

[26]  Rolf Eligehausen,et al.  Anchorage in Concrete Construction , 2006 .

[27]  Reginald DesRoches,et al.  Bridge Damage and Repair Costs from Hurricane Katrina , 2008 .

[28]  H. Ronald Riggs,et al.  Lessons from Hurricane Katrina Storm Surge on Bridges and Buildings , 2007 .

[29]  Francisco Aguiniga,et al.  Report Synthesis of Wave Load Design Methods for Coastal Bridges , 2008 .

[30]  Gilberto Mosqueda,et al.  Damage to Engineered Buildings and Bridges in the Wake of Hurricane Katrina , 2007 .

[31]  J. R. Morison,et al.  The Force Exerted by Surface Waves on Piles , 1950 .

[32]  Ronald A. Cook,et al.  Behavior and Design of Single, Headed and Unheaded, Grouted Anchors under Tensile Load , 2003 .

[33]  Kenneth M. Leet.  Reinforced Concrete Design , 1982 .

[34]  Anne S. Kiremidjian,et al.  Development of Empirical Fragility Curves for Bridges , 1999 .

[35]  Bo Meng,et al.  Uplift Wave Load on the Superstructure of Coastal Bridges , 2007 .

[36]  James G. MacGregor,et al.  Reinforced Concrete: Mechanics and Design , 1996 .

[37]  Robert M. Sorensen,et al.  Basic wave mechanics : for coastal and ocean engineers , 1993 .

[38]  Jamie E. Padgett,et al.  Impact of 2008 Hurricane Ike on Bridge Infrastructure in the Houston/Galveston Region , 2012 .

[39]  Wenrui Huang,et al.  Numerical Modeling of Dynamic Wave Force Acting on Escambia Bay Bridge Deck during Hurricane Ivan , 2009 .

[40]  Haihong Zhao,et al.  Prediction of Storm Surges and Wind Waves on Coastal Highways in Hurricane-Prone Areas , 2007 .