New Electric Transmission Systems: Experiences from Turkey

In this case study, the existing situations of Turkey's energy generation and transmission systems are investigated along actual data between 1999 and 2011. The increasing trends of electricity consumption, as well as other growth parameters are revealed. Future energy demand is forecasted with a novel layered mathematical model at hourly resolution. It is shown that the prediction follows the average growth even after over-growth or crisis years, which makes the proposed method a reliable load forecasting tool. The model outcomes for certain future years are generated, and compared to current energy sources. It is concluded that, with the available electric production technology, the current resource potential will not be sufficient by year 2023, so alternative electric generation systems must be adopted to keep up with the expected growth. Keywords: energy demand; transmission systems; energy sources; load forecasting; electric energy of Turkey