Historic surface slip along the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, California

The Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment is focusing close attention on the 44-km-long section of the San Andreas fault that last ruptured seismically in 1966 (Ms 6.0). The 20-km-long central segment of the 1966 Parkfield rupture, extending from the mainshock epicenter at Middle Mountain southeastward to Gold Hill, forms a 1- to 2-km salient northeastward away from the dominant N40°W strike. Following the 1966 earthquake afterslip, aseismic slip has been nearly constant. Moderate Parkfield earthquakes have recurred on average every 21 years since 1857, when a great earthquake (M≈8) ruptured at least as far north as the southern Parkfield segment. Many measurements of slip have been made near Parkfield since 1966. Nevertheless, much of the history of surface slip remained uncertain, especially the total amount associated with the 1966 event. In 1985 we measured accumulated slip on the four oldest cultural features offset by the fault along the 1966 Parkfield rupture segment. We interpret net slip on each feature as a sum of event slip (sum of coseismic and rapid preseismic and postseismic slip) from Parkfield earthquakes and steady interseismic slip as measured over the last 20 years on nearby alinement arrays, creep meters, and trilateration lines. We assumed for each site that event slip was identical for the 1922, 1934, and 1966 Parkfield events and that long-term average rate of interseismic slip was constant between all events. Two fences on the southern segment, southeast of Gold Hill, indicate event slip of 13 and 15 cm and interseismic slip rate of 0.36 and 0.30 cm/yr since 1959 and 1908, respectively. At these sites, redundant independent data support our assumption that both event and interseismic slip occur uniformly. On the central segment, near Parkfield, both the 1934 and the 1966 ruptures offset a bridge built in 1932. Interseismic slip rate near the bridge has been about 1.1 cm/yr since 1966; thus we deduce an average event slip of 31 cm for the 1934 and 1966 earthquakes. On a parallel fault trace, 1 km to the southwest, slip was about 8 cm in 1966; thus total event slip summed across the entire fault zone near Parkfield was nearly 40 cm. On Middle Mountain, 4 km north of the 1966 mainshock epicenter, an offset fence indicates 17 cm of slip in 1966 and a 2.26-cm/yr interseismic slip rate since circa 1946. Thus the central segment of the 1966 rupture is characterized by much larger event slip (∼40 cm) than both distal segments (∼15 cm). This amount of surface slip per event is about twice what had been previously assumed. Larger 1966 surface slip in the central part of the rupture is geodetically compatible with a coseismic slip of 65±10 cm slip on a narrow, buried asperity between Middle Mountain and Gold Hill that has been inferred from the depth distribution of early aftershocks. Assuming our characteristic surface slip model, one can further deduce a deficit in slip since the great 1857 earthquake. Taking the long-term slip rate as 3.3 cm/yr, the surface slip deficit is 3±0.2 m south of Gold Hill but only 0.3±0.3 m northward from Parkfield.