Predicting Streamflows in Snowmelt-Driven Watersheds Using the Flow Duration Curve Method

Predicting streamflows in snow-fed watersheds in the Western United States is important for water alloca- tion. Since many of these watersheds are heavily regulated through canal networks and reservoirs, predicting expected natural flows and therefore water availability under limited data is always a challenge. This study investigates the appli- cability of the flow duration curve (FDC) method for pre- dicting natural flows in gauged and regulated snow-fed wa- tersheds. Point snow observations, air temperature, precipi- tation, and snow water equivalent were used to simulate the snowmelt process with the SNOW-17 model, and extended to streamflow simulation using the FDC method with a mod- ified current precipitation index. For regulated watersheds, a parametric regional FDC method was applied to recon- struct natural flow. For comparison, a simplified tank model was used considering both lumped and semi-distributed ap- proaches. The proximity regionalization method was used to simulate streamflows in the regulated watersheds with the tank model. The results showed that the FDC method is capa- ble of producing satisfactory natural flow estimates in gauged watersheds when high correlation exists between current pre- cipitation index and streamflow. For regulated watersheds, the regional FDC method produced acceptable river diver- sion estimates, but it seemed to have more uncertainty due to less robustness of the FDC method. In spite of its simplicity, the FDC method is a practical approach with less computa- tional burden for studies with minimal data availability.

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