论文信息 - Chaotic Performance Analysis and Day Water Level Prediction of Baiyangdian

Chaotic Performance Analysis and Day Water Level Prediction of Baiyangdian

Abstract-According to the hydrological data of Baiyangdian covering 1956～2000, the parameters representing characteristics, such as delay time and embedding dimension, are calculated through the phase space rebuilding technology C-C method. Chaotic performance of day water level series has been verified on the basis of the maximum Lyapunov index. The prediction of the day water level sequence get satisfying results both in the plentiful period and in the dry period within the predictable time scale by the maximum Lyapunov index model, which make the chaotic prediction become a new thinking for establishing accurate water level prediction model.

[1] James P. Crutchfield,et al. Geometry from a Time Series , 1980 .

[2] A. Wolf,et al. Determining Lyapunov exponents from a time series , 1985 .

[3] D. Kugiumtzis. State space reconstruction parameters in the analysis of chaotic time series—the role of the time window length , 1996, comp-gas/9602002.

[4] H. S. Kim,et al. Nonlinear dynamics , delay times , and embedding windows , 1999 .

[5] J. Salas,et al. Nonlinear dynamics, delay times, and embedding windows , 1999 .

[6] G. P. King,et al. Extracting qualitative dynamics from experimental data , 1986 .

[7] B. LeBaron,et al. Nonlinear Dynamics, Chaos, and Instability: Statistical Theory and Economic Evidence , 1991 .