Combining multiparametric MRI with receptor information to optimize prediction of pathologic response to neoadjuvant therapy in breast cancer: preliminary results

Abstract Pathologic complete response following neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) is used as a short-term surrogate marker of eventual outcome in patients with breast cancer. Analyzing voxel-level heterogeneity in MRI-derived parametric maps, obtained before and after the first cycle of NAT (n=33), in conjunction with receptor status, may improve the predictive accuracy of tumor response to NAT. Toward that end, we incorporated two MRI-derived parameters, the apparent diffusion coefficient and efflux rate constant, with receptor status in a logistic ridge-regression model. The area under the curve (AUC) and Brier score of the model computed via 10-fold cross validation were 0.94 (95% CI: 0.85, 0.99) and 0.11 (95% CI: 0.06, 0.16), respectively. These two statistics strongly support the hypothesis that our proposed model outperforms the other models that we investigated (namely, models without either receptor information or voxel-level information). The contribution of the receptor information was manifested by an 8% to 15% increase in AUC and a 14% to 21% decrease in Brier score. These data indicate that combining multiparametric MRI with hormone receptor status has a high likelihood of improved prediction of pathologic response to NAT in breast cancer.