Memory predictions are based on ease of processing

Abstract The article reports four experiments that examine people's ability to predict the outcome of a future test of memory. Our thesis is that memory predictions are implicit judgments of how easily the item is processed while answering the predictive question. If items are processed easily because of factors that also cause memory to succeed, predictions are accurate; if the factors that cause easy processing are irrelevant for memory, predictions are less accurate. The experiments examine factors that influence the prediction taks and the memory test separately; these include item attributes, manner of processing, repetition, and similarity of processing between the prediction task and the memory test. Predictions are most accurate if the prediction task entails the same processes as the test, even if the predictive question is nominally irrelevant to the test; predictions are less accurate if the task and test have different entailments, even if the nominal question is specifically aimed at the test.