Optimal protection of complex networks exposed to a terrorist hazard: A multi-objective evolutionary approach

The present paper proposes an approach for prioritizing the protection of a network system exposed to a terrorist attack. The approach is based on a multi-objective optimization (MO) formulation for finding Pareto optimal solutions with respect to two indicators measuring the damage that the attack may cause: the time to reach all network destination nodes (TTRAD) and the average number of persons affected (ANPA). The MO is tackled by means of a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA) that combines the basic concepts of dominance with the general characteristics of evolutionary algorithms. Within this optimization scheme, the goodness of each alternative protection scheme is quantified by a combination of cellular automata (CA) and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. Numerical examples illustrate how the approach is capable of identifying effective protection schemes.

[1]  S. Kaplan,et al.  On The Quantitative Definition of Risk , 1981 .

[2]  Jeffery D. Lewins,et al.  Basics of the Monte Carlo Method with Application to System Reliability , 2003 .

[3]  John C. McDonald,et al.  Confronting the risks of terrorism: making the right decisions , 2004, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[4]  Wolfram,et al.  Origins of randomness in physical systems. , 1985, Physical review letters.

[5]  Enrico Zio,et al.  Security assessment in complex networks exposed to terrorist hazard: a simulation approach , 2008, Int. J. Crit. Infrastructures.

[6]  Kjell Hausken,et al.  Protection vs. redundancy in homogeneous parallel systems , 2008, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[7]  Gregory Levitin,et al.  Survivability of series-parallel systems with multilevel protection , 2005, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[8]  Enrico Zio,et al.  Multi-Objective Evolutionary Optimisation of the Protection of Complex Networks Exposed to Terrorist Hazard , 2007 .

[9]  Gregory Levitin,et al.  Importance of protections against intentional attacks , 2008, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[10]  E. Zio,et al.  Complex Networks Vulnerability: A Multiple-Objective Optimization Approach , 2007, 2007 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium.

[11]  J. Birchmeier,et al.  Systematic assessment of the degree of criticality of infrastructures , 2007 .

[12]  Gregory Levitin.  Optimal Defense Strategy Against Intentional Attacks , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Reliability.

[13]  Enrico Zio,et al.  Solving advanced network reliability problems by means of cellular automata and Monte Carlo sampling , 2005, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[14]  Roy Billinton,et al.  Reliability evaluation of engineering systems : concepts and techniques , 1992 .

[15]  Ake J Holmgren,et al.  Using Graph Models to Analyze the Vulnerability of Electric Power Networks , 2006, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[16]  D. Shier.  Network Reliability and Algebraic Structures , 1991 .

[17]  Lothar Thiele,et al.  Multiobjective evolutionary algorithms: a comparative case study and the strength Pareto approach , 1999, IEEE Trans. Evol. Comput..

[18]  D. Salazar.  Forum ( Robustness Analysis ) Robustness Analysis : An Information-Based Perspective , 2006 .

[19]  Vicki M. Bier,et al.  Protection of simple series and parallel systems with components of different values , 2005, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[20]  Blas Galván,et al.  Optimization of constrained multiple-objective reliability problems using evolutionary algorithms , 2006, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[21]  Enrico Zio,et al.  Security Assessment in Complex Networks Exposed to Terrorist Hazard: A Methodological Approach Based on Cellular Automata and Monte Carlo Simulation , 2006 .

[22]  Y. Haimes,et al.  The Role of Risk Analysis in the Protection of Critical Infrastructures Against Terrorism , 2002, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[23]  Charles J. Colbourn,et al.  The Combinatorics of Network Reliability , 1987 .

[24]  Stan Kaplan,et al.  The Words of Risk Analysis , 1997 .

[25]  E. Reingold,et al.  Combinatorial Algorithms: Theory and Practice , 1977 .

[26]  Åke J. Holmgren,et al.  Evaluating Strategies for Defending Electric Power Networks Against Antagonistic Attacks , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[27]  George E Apostolakis,et al.  A Screening Methodology for the Identification and Ranking of Infrastructure Vulnerabilities Due to Terrorism , 2005, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[28]  Kalyanmoy Deb,et al.  A fast and elitist multiobjective genetic algorithm: NSGA-II , 2002, IEEE Trans. Evol. Comput..

[29]  Bethany S. Dohleman.  Exploratory social network analysis with Pajek , 2006 .

[30]  Massimo Marchiori,et al.  A topological analysis of the Italian electric power grid , 2004 .

[31]  Francesco Maffioli,et al.  Fishman's sampling plan for computing network reliability , 2001, IEEE Trans. Reliab..

[32]  V. Latora,et al.  Complex networks: Structure and dynamics , 2006 .

[33]  Chris W. Johnson.  Understanding the interaction between public policy, managerial decision-making and the engineering of critical infrastructures , 2007, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[34]  Tomasz Arciszewski,et al.  Reduction of Physical Threats to Water Distribution Systems , 2006 .