An Improved A* Algorithm Based on Hesitant Fuzzy Set Theory for Multi-Criteria Arctic Route Planning

This paper presents a new route planning system for the purpose of evaluating the strategic prospects for future Arctic routes. The route planning problem can be regarded as a multi criteria decision making problem with large uncertainties originating from multi-climate models and experts’ knowledge and can be solved by a modified A* algorithm where the hesitant fuzzy set theory is incorporated. Compared to the traditional A* algorithm, the navigability of the Arctic route is firstly analyzed as a measure to determine the obstacle nodes and three key factors to the vessel navigation including sailing time, economic cost and risk are overall considered in the HFS-A* algorithm. A numerical experiment is presented to test the performance of the proposed algorithm.

[1]  Laurence C. Smith,et al.  Projected 21st-century changes to Arctic marine access , 2013, Climatic Change.

[2]  Kaj Riska,et al.  A system for route optimization in ice-covered waters , 2009 .

[3]  Zeshui Xu,et al.  A Novel Comparison of Probabilistic Hesitant Fuzzy Elements in Multi-Criteria Decision Making , 2018, Symmetry.

[4]  Axel Schweiger,et al.  Using records from submarine, aircraft and satellites to evaluate climate model simulations of Arctic sea ice thickness , 2014 .

[5]  Francisco Herrera,et al.  Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Term Sets for Decision Making , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems.

[6]  Karl E. Taylor,et al.  An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design , 2012 .

[7]  B. Srinath Arctic shipping: commercial viability of the arctic sea routes , 2010 .

[8]  Frédéric Lasserre,et al.  Case studies of shipping along Arctic routes. Analysis and profitability perspectives for the container sector , 2014 .

[9]  Xintao Liu,et al.  Towards an Automatic Ice Navigation Support System in the Arctic Sea , 2016, ISPRS Int. J. Geo Inf..

[10]  I. Mokhov,et al.  New model estimates of changes in the duration of the navigation period for the Northern Sea Route in the 21st century , 2016, Doklady Earth Sciences.

[11]  Zeshui Xu,et al.  Hesitant fuzzy information aggregation in decision making , 2011, Int. J. Approx. Reason..

[12]  I. Mokhov,et al.  Transit navigation through Northern Sea Route from satellite data and CMIP5 simulations , 2017 .

[13]  P. Kujala,et al.  Performance of Ice-strengthened Ships in the Northern Baltic Sea in Winter 1991 , 1992 .

[14]  Malcolm Davidson,et al.  CryoSat‐2 estimates of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume , 2013 .

[15]  Halvor Schøyen,et al.  The Northern Sea Route versus the Suez Canal: Cases from Bulk Shipping , 2011 .

[16]  Laurence C. Smith,et al.  New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[17]  M. Holland,et al.  Twenty-First-Century Arctic Climate Change in CCSM4 , 2012 .

[18]  R. Szlapczynski A new method of ship routing on raster grids, with turn penalties and collision avoidance , 2005 .

[19]  Osiris A. Valdez Banda,et al.  A risk analysis of winter navigation in Finnish sea areas. , 2015, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[20]  Jérôme Verny,et al.  Container shipping on the Northern Sea Route , 2009 .

[21]  Vicenç Torra,et al.  On hesitant fuzzy sets and decision , 2009, 2009 IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems.

[22]  E. Hawkins,et al.  Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations , 2015 .

[23]  J. Kay,et al.  Late-Twentieth-Century Simulation of Arctic Sea Ice and Ocean Properties in the CCSM4 , 2012 .

[24]  R. Lindsay New Unified Sea Ice Thickness Climate Data Record , 2010 .

[25]  Willy Østreng,et al.  Shipping in Arctic Waters: A comparison of the Northeast, Northwest and Trans Polar Passages , 2013 .

[26]  Matthew Dunbabin,et al.  Go with the flow : optimal AUV path planning in coastal environments , 2009, ICRA 2009.

[27]  Lukas Wagner,et al.  A Greedy Algorithm for Aligning DNA Sequences , 2000, J. Comput. Biol..

[28]  T. Fichefet,et al.  On the influence of model physics on simulations of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice , 2011 .

[29]  Keith Haines,et al.  Sea ice decline and 21st century trans‐Arctic shipping routes , 2016 .

[30]  Jakub Montewka,et al.  A framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems: A case study for oil spill from tankers in a ship–ship collision , 2015 .

[31]  H. Ouyang,et al.  The potential seasonal alternative of Asia–Europe container service via Northern sea route under the Arctic sea ice retreat , 2011 .

[32]  Daria Gritsenko,et al.  A review of Russian ice-breaking tariff policy on the northern sea route 1991–2014 , 2015, Polar Record.

[33]  Jacob Kronbak,et al.  The potential economic viability of using the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative route between Asia and Europe , 2010 .

[34]  John J. Leonard,et al.  Navigation of unmanned marine vehicles in accordance with the rules of the road , 2006, Proceedings 2006 IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation, 2006. ICRA 2006..

[35]  Shahzad Faizi,et al.  Decision Making with Uncertainty Using Hesitant Fuzzy Sets , 2017, International Journal of Fuzzy Systems.

[36]  J. Yackel,et al.  A vessel transit assessment of sea ice variability in the Western Arctic, 1969–2002: implications for ship navigation , 2004 .

[37]  Masahiko Furuichi,et al.  Economic feasibility of finished vehicle and container transport by NSR/SCR-combined shipping between East Asia and Northwest Europe , 2014 .

[38]  J. Pruyn Will the Northern Sea Route ever be a viable alternative? , 2016 .

[39]  L. D. Farmer,et al.  DEVELOPMENT AND RESULTS OF A NORTHERN SEA ROUTE TRANSIT MODEL. , 1996 .

[40]  John P. Weyant,et al.  A special issue on the RCPs , 2011 .

[41]  Ron Kwok,et al.  Uncertainty in modeled Arctic sea ice volume , 2011 .

[42]  M. Johnston Seasonal changes in the properties of first-year, second-year and multi-year ice , 2017 .

[43]  Laurent Bertino,et al.  On the future navigability of Arctic sea routes: High-resolution projections of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice , 2017 .

[44]  L. Smith,et al.  Influence of climate model variability on projected Arctic shipping futures , 2015 .

[45]  R. Horton,et al.  Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free Arctic , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[46]  Jozef Szymanski,et al.  The Northwest Passage: A simulation , 2009 .

[47]  Zeshui Xu,et al.  Novel distance and similarity measures on hesitant fuzzy sets with applications to clustering analysis , 2015, J. Intell. Fuzzy Syst..

[48]  C. Bitz,et al.  Characteristics of Arctic Sea-Ice Thickness Variability in GCMs , 2014 .

[49]  Andrej Babinec,et al.  Modelling of Mechanical and Mechatronic Systems MMaMS 2014 Path planning with modified A star algorithm for a mobile robot , 2014 .

[50]  Anette Omre An economic transport system of the next generation integrating the northern and southern passages , 2012 .

[51]  Zhiming Zhang,et al.  Hesitant fuzzy power aggregation operators and their application to multiple attribute group decision making , 2013, Inf. Sci..

[52]  Igor I. Mokhov,et al.  Arctic climate changes and possible conditions of Arctic navigation in the 21st century , 2010 .

[53]  Hajime Yamaguchi,et al.  Arctic sea route path planning based on an uncertain ice prediction model , 2015 .

[54]  Young-Kyo Seo,et al.  Simulation of optimal arctic routes using a numerical sea ice model based on an ice-coupled ocean circulation method , 2013 .

[55]  V. Torra,et al.  A framework for linguistic logic programming , 2010 .

[56]  Qiang Meng,et al.  Shipping efficiency comparison between Northern Sea Route and the conventional Asia-Europe shipping route via Suez Canal , 2016 .

[57]  T. Kiiski Feasibility of commercial cargo shipping along the Northern Sea Route , 2017 .

[58]  Sören Ehlers,et al.  Decision Support Framework for Exploiting Northern Sea Route Transport Opportunities , 2012 .

[59]  C. Amante,et al.  ETOPO1 arc-minute global relief model : procedures, data sources and analysis , 2009 .

[60]  Edsger W. Dijkstra,et al.  A note on two problems in connexion with graphs , 1959, Numerische Mathematik.

[61]  Zhiyuan Liu,et al.  Bunker consumption optimization methods in shipping: A critical review and extensions , 2013 .

[62]  Carlos Jahn,et al.  Modeling and Optimization Algorithms in Ship Weather Routing , 2016 .

[63]  M. Latif,et al.  Perspectives of Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage in the twenty-first century , 2010 .