A Quantitative Approach to Perform Expert Elicitation for Space Communication System Design and Risk Analysis: Methodology and Experimental Results

[1]  Seth D. Guikema,et al.  Programmatic Risk Analysis for Critical Engineering Systems Under Tight Resource Constraints , 2003, Oper. Res..

[2]  Ali Mosleh,et al.  A critique of current practice for the use of expert opinions in probabilistic risk assessment , 1988 .

[3]  Kar-Ming Cheung,et al.  Risk analysis for nondeterministic mission planning and sequencing , 2005, 2005 IEEE Aerospace Conference.

[4]  R. Cooke.  Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science , 1991 .

[5]  Jian Zhou,et al.  Approach of Expert Opinion Acquisition Based on Cloud Model and Evidence Theory , 2009, 2009 International Conference on Management and Service Science.

[6]  Alessandra Babuscia,et al.  Statistical Risk Estimation for Communication System Design , 2013, IEEE Systems Journal.

[7]  L. Meshkat,et al.  A Holistic Approach for Risk Management During Design , 2007, 2007 IEEE Aerospace Conference.

[8]  A. Gelfand,et al.  Modeling Expert Opinion Arising as a Partial Probabilistic Specification , 1995 .

[9]  A. Tversky,et al.  BELIEF IN THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS , 1971, Pediatrics.

[10]  Kaplan,et al.  ‘Combining Probability Distributions from Experts in Risk Analysis’ , 2000, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[11]  Vincent Goulet,et al.  expert: Modeling Without Data Using Expert Opinion , 2009 .

[12]  Arnold Neumaier,et al.  Handling Uncertainty in Higher Dimensions with Potential Clouds towards Robust Design Optimization , 2008, SMPS.

[13]  Irem Y. Tumer,et al.  The Risk in Early Design (RED) Method: Likelihood and Consequence Formulations , 2006, DAC 2006.

[14]  Robert A. Jacobs,et al.  Methods For Combining Experts' Probability Assessments , 1995, Neural Computation.

[15]  Rania Hassan,et al.  DISCRETE DESIGN OPTIMIZATION UNDER UNCERTAINTY: A GENERALIZED POPULATION-BASED SAMPLING GENETIC ALGORITHM , 2004 .

[16]  Harold I. Jacobson.  THE MAXIMUM VARIANCE OF RESTRICTED UNIMODAL DISTRIBUTIONS , 1969 .

[17]  Jeremy E. Oakley,et al.  Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities , 2006 .

[18]  Arnold Neumaier,et al.  Potential Based Clouds in Robust Design Optimization , 2009 .

[19]  David Lindley,et al.  Reliability (and Fault Tree) Analysis Using Expert Opinions , 1986 .

[20]  Hany H. Ammar,et al.  Model-based performance risk analysis , 2005, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering.

[21]  Arnold Neumaier,et al.  Uncertainty modeling in autonomous robust spacecraft system design , 2007 .

[22]  Paolo Giorgini,et al.  Using Risk Analysis to Evaluate Design Alternatives , 2006, AOSE.

[23]  Allan S Detsky,et al.  Everyone's a little bit biased (even physicians). , 2008, JAMA.

[24]  Harry F. Martz,et al.  A Statistical Model for Combining Biased Expert Opinions , 1984, IEEE Transactions on Reliability.

[25]  Gudela Grote,et al.  Uncertainty management at the core of system design , 2003, Annu. Rev. Control..

[26]  Kar-Ming Cheung,et al.  Statistical Link Analysis — A Risk Analysis Perspective , 2011 .

[27]  Anthony O'Hagan,et al.  Eliciting expert beliefs in substantial practical applications , 1998 .

[28]  Robert T. Clemen,et al.  Copula Models for Aggregating Expert Opinions , 1996, Oper. Res..