Predicting snow height in ski resorts using an agent-based simulation

This paper presents the Juste-Neige system for predicting the snow height on the ski runs of a resort using an agent-based simulation software. The aim of Juste-Neige is to facilitate snow cover management in order to i reduce the production cost of artificial snow and to improve the profit margin for the companies managing the ski resorts; and ii to reduce the water and energy consumption, and thus to reduce the environmental impact, by producing only the snow needed for a good skiing experience. The software provides maps with the predicted snow heights for the predicted days. On these maps, the areas most exposed to snow erosion are highlighted. The software proceeds in three steps: i interpolation of snow height measurements with a neural network; ii local meteorological forecasts for every ski resort; iii simulation of the impact caused by skiers using a multi-agent system. The software has been evaluated in the ski resort of Verbier in Switzerland and provides predictions that are useful for the management of the ski runs. This paper presents the software in general and the agent-based simulation in particular.

[1]  Stefan Brönnimann,et al.  Climate Change in the European Alps , 2014 .

[2]  Dirk Helbing,et al.  Agent-Based Modeling , 2012 .

[3]  Fatah Chetouane,et al.  Modelling and discrete-event simulation for ski lifts service operations design , 2011 .

[4]  R. Buckley,et al.  Climate Response by the Ski Industry: The Shortcomings of Snowmaking for Australian Resorts , 2010, AMBIO.

[5]  Martin Schneebeli,et al.  Snow metamorphism under alternating temperature gradients: Morphology and recrystallization in surface snow , 2009 .

[6]  Alexei Pozdnoukhov,et al.  Machine Learning for Spatial Environmental Data: Theory, Applications, and Software , 2009 .

[7]  Michael Batty,et al.  SERIES Key Challenges in Agent-Based Modelling for GeoSpatial Simulation , 2007 .

[8]  Werner Nachbauer,et al.  Computer simulation of consecutive ski turns , 2008 .

[9]  G. An,et al.  The Basic Immune Simulator: An agent-based model to study the interactions between innate and adaptive immunity , 2007, Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling.

[10]  L. Yin,et al.  Assessing indirect spatial effects of mountain tourism development: an application of agent-based spatial modeling. , 2007 .

[11]  Steven L. Lytinen,et al.  Agent-based Simulation Platforms: Review and Development Recommendations , 2006, Simul..

[12]  Michael J. North,et al.  Tutorial on agent-based modelling and simulation , 2005, Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference, 2005..

[13]  William Rand,et al.  Spatial process and data models: Toward integration of agent-based models and GIS , 2005, J. Geogr. Syst..

[14]  S. Hudson,et al.  Measuring destination competitiveness: an empirical study of Canadian ski resorts , 2004 .

[15]  L. Dwyer,et al.  Destination Competitiveness: Determinants and Indicators , 2003 .

[16]  David A. Bennett,et al.  Agent-based modelling environment for spatial decision support , 2003, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..

[17]  Daniel Scott,et al.  Climate change and the skiing industry in southern Ontario (Canada): exploring the importance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation , 2003 .

[18]  Gary M. Thompson,et al.  Evaluating Capacity- and Demand-Management Decisions at a Ski Resort , 2002 .

[19]  Eric Bonabeau,et al.  Agent-based modeling: Methods and techniques for simulating human systems , 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[20]  H. Elsasser,et al.  Climate change as a threat to tourism in the Alps , 2002 .

[21]  J. Houghton,et al.  Climate change 2001 : the scientific basis , 2001 .

[22]  Michael Wooldridge,et al.  Introduction to multiagent systems , 2001 .

[23]  Charles M. Macal,et al.  Introduction: The Simulation of Social Agents , 2001 .

[24]  H. Randy Gimblett,et al.  Integrating geographic information systems and agent-based modeling techniques for simulating social and ecological processes , 2001 .

[25]  H. Van Dyke Parunak,et al.  Agent-Based Modeling vs. Equation-Based Modeling: A Case Study and Users' Guide , 1998, MABS.

[26]  Ross D. Brown,et al.  Spatial and temporal variability of Canadian monthly snow depths, 1946–1995 , 1998 .

[27]  G. Müller,et al.  The Scientific Basis , 1995 .

[28]  N. Tada,et al.  Mechanics of a turning snow ski , 1994 .

[29]  Gerard B. M. Heuvelink,et al.  Propagation of errors in spatial modelling with GIS , 1989, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..

[30]  Craig W. Reynolds.  Flocks, herds, and schools: a distributed behavioral model , 1987, SIGGRAPH.

[31]  R. Knafou.  Les stations intégrées de sports d'hiver des Alpes françaises : l'aménagement de la montagne à la "française" , 1978 .