단일저수지 월간운영률의 개발 : II. 확률론적 장기저류량 예측

The objectives of this study are in order to get appropriate parameters for piecewise-linear operating rule when NSGA-Ⅱ is applied, to evaluate applicability of the developed operating rule only using historical inflow series, and to provide a probabilistic long-term reservoir storage forecast to the decision maker of reservoir operation. An optimal segment for piecewise-linear operating rule is selected to five with water supply constraint. A total ten different random seeds are used but all the developed operating rules show similar shapes with each other and thus random seed effect is not considerable. The reservoir operation results using historical inflows with each initial storage at the start of year from 2000 to 2006 show a good performance although inflows and initial storages of this period have much different from each other. The probabilistic long-term reservoir storage forecast is provided from the optimization results using the developed piecewise-linear operating rule and 100-year synthetic inflow.