Integration of physical infrastructure and social systems in communities' reliability and resilience analysis

Abstract This paper proposes probabilistic flow-based models for the capacity and demand of critical infrastructure considering different levels of resolution. The models are set in a probabilistic procedure that captures the impact of the damaging event on the infrastructure. The procedure predicts the reduction or loss of functionality of the infrastructure in terms of their ability to provide essential goods or services. In the aftermath of a damaging event, infrastructure change their capacities, due to the damage to the physical components, and they may not be able to satisfy pre-event demands. Furthermore, the post-event demands at the nodes of the infrastructure might change because of the human response (e.g., evacuation or relocation.) The probabilistic procedure presented in this paper integrates physical infrastructure and social systems to predict the change in demand on the infrastructure. As an example, the paper applies the proposed procedure to the modeling of the potable water network of Seaside, Oregon considering a seismic event as the damaging event. The paper shows that neglecting the interdependency between physical infrastructure and social systems may result in estimates of i) higher demands on the physical systems; ii) slower recovery; and iii) smaller impacts on society in terms of population dislocation.