Software process simulation to achieve higher CMM levels

Abstract Organizations interested in improving their process performance face two key questions: • What is the best approach for making decisions about process changes? • How can the risk associated with potential process alternatives be assessed? Quantitative process analysis tools are being developed by Northrop Grumman's Surveillance and Battle Management Systems (SBMS Melbourne, Florida) and Portland State University, under sponsorship of the Software Engineering Research Center (SERC). These tools consist of stochastic simulation models of the software development process. The stochastic/analytic portions of the models provide a quantitative understanding of the current process and provide a mechanism for the quantitative analysis of proposed process change alternatives prior to implementation. The use of simulation models also supports a quantitative assessment of risk or uncertainty associated with process change alternatives. For Northrop Grumman's SBMS Melbourne site, the use of software process simulation is a key part of the company's strategy for achieving a higher software development process capability and moving to Levels 4 and 5 of the Capability Maturity Model (CMM)™. 3 This paper provides a brief background on alternative quantitative approaches, describes the model currently being utilized by the SBMS Melbourne site, and provides an example of its use in analyzing a potential process change.