Climate impacts on Indian agriculture

Agriculture (arguably the backbone of India’s economy) is highly dependent on the spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon rainfall. This paper presents an analysis of crop–climate relationships for India, using historic production statistics for major crops (rice, wheat, sorghum, groundnut and sugarcane) and for aggregate food grain, cereal, pulses and oilseed production. Correlation analysis provides an indication of the influence of monsoon rainfall and some of its potential predictors (Pacific and Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures, Darwin sea-level pressure) on crop production. All-India annual total production (except sorghum and sugarcane), and production in the monsoon (except sorghum) and post-monsoon seasons (except rice and sorghum) were significantly correlated to all-India summer monsoon rainfall. Monsoon season crops (except sorghum) were strongly associated with the three potential monsoon predictors. Results using state-level crop production statistics and subdivisional monsoon rainfall were generally consistent with the all-India results, but demonstrated some surprising spatial variations. Whereas the impact of subdivisional monsoon rainfall is strong in most of the country, the influence of concurrent predictors related to El Ni˜ no–southern oscillation and the Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures at a long lead time seem greatest in the western to central peninsula. Copyright  2004 Royal Meteorological Society. Agriculture is the backbone of India’s economy. Its contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) has declined from 57% in 1950–51 to around 28% (1998–99) due primarily to growth in other sectors of the economy. The declining share of the agricultural sector, however, has not affected the importance of the sector in the Indian economy. Owing to both the direct value of agricultural products and agriculture’s indirect impact on employment, rural livelihoods and other sectors that use agricultural products, the growth of India’s GDP has largely been determined by the trend in agricultural production. Its impact on the welfare of the country is much greater than the macroeconomic indicators suggest: as nearly 70% of the working population depends on agricultural activities for their livelihood. The majority of India’s population depends on cereal and pulse production for sustenance. Agriculture is also a major supplier of raw materials for industry. Examples include cotton and jute for textiles, sugar and vegetable oil. Some 50% of all the income generated in the manufacturing sector in India can be attributed directly or indirectly to agricultural production. Agricultural commodities, and products that depend on agriculture, account for nearly 70% of the value of exports. Tea, sugar, oilseeds, tobacco and spices are major export commodities. Cereals dominate India’s agricultural output, accounting for more than 90% of the food grains; pulses account for the rest. Rice (44% of production) and wheat (37%) are the main cereals, with coarse cereals (e.g. maize, sorghum, millet) accounting for about 18% (Central Statistical Organization, 1998). Table I gives the areas under the principal crops considered in this study and their changes over the years (Figure 1).