차량 점유시간을 활용한 실시간 신호제어시스템 대기행렬길이 추정모형 개발

The queue and forward congestion detector, used to estimate the length of queue by the COSMOS system, is in the form of a single loop, which contains a fundamental error in the value of velocity - since, in the calculation of velocity, the average length of vehicles is estimated on the basis of the characteristics of a single-loop device. Hence, the reliability in the estimated value of the length of queue, which is calculated using velocity as a variable, becomes lower as well. In this thesis, we attempt to improve the reliability in the estimation of the length of queue by use of average occupancy time as a variable, based on the simplistic proposition that "the longer the road is congested, the longer becomes the occupancy time of vehicles," instead of the velocity variable, which contains a fundamental error. The newly developed model was evaluated in a site experiment conducted on the section of National Highway No. 3 where a signal operation demonstration system was installed. As a result the equivalent coefficient and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were found to be 0.93 and 11.25% respectively, which are superior to 0.90 and 21.85% obtained from the existing velocity-based (COSMOS) model, in terms of reliability.