Estimating the volume of glaciers in the Himalayan–Karakoram region using different methods

Ice volume estimates are crucial for assessing water reserves stored in glaciers. Due to its large glacier coverage, such estimates are of particular interest for the Himalayan-Karakoram (HK) region. In this study, different existing methodologies are used to estimate the ice reserves: three area-volume relations, one slope-dependent volume estimation method, and two ice-thickness distribution models are applied to a recent, detailed, and complete glacier inventory of the HK region, spanning over the period 2000-2010 and revealing an ice coverage of 40 775 km(2). An uncertainty and sensitivity assessment is performed to investigate the influence of the observed glacier area and important model parameters on the resulting total ice volume. Results of the two ice-thickness distribution models are validated with local ice-thickness measurements at six glaciers. The resulting ice volumes for the entire HK region range from 2955 to 4737 km(3), depending on the approach. This range is lower than most previous estimates. Results from the ice thickness distribution models and the slope-dependent thickness estimations agree well with measured local ice thicknesses. However, total volume estimates from area-related relations are larger than those from other approaches. The study provides evidence on the significant effect of the selected method on results and underlines the importance of a careful and critical evaluation.

[1]  Solveig H. Winsvold,et al.  On the accuracy of glacier outlines derived from remote-sensing data , 2013, Annals of Glaciology.

[2]  M. Bishop,et al.  Expanded and Recently Increased Glacier Surging in the Karakoram , 2011 .

[3]  Matthias Huss,et al.  The length of the world's glaciers – a new approach for the global calculation of center lines , 2014 .

[4]  Siri Jodha Singh Khalsa,et al.  The GLIMS geospatial glacier database: A new tool for studying glacier change ☆ , 2007 .

[5]  D. R. Gurung,et al.  Inventory of Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods: Monitoring and Early Warning Systems in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region - Bhutan , 2001 .

[6]  Sarah C. B. Raper,et al.  The potential for sea level rise: New estimates from glacier and ice cap area and volume distributions , 2005 .

[7]  J. Pu,et al.  Recent area and ice volume change of Kangwure Glacier in the middle of Himalayas , 2010 .

[8]  D. Farinotti,et al.  An upper-bound estimate for the accuracy of volume-area scaling , 2013 .

[9]  John Goodier,et al.  Encyclopedia of Snow, Ice and Glaciers , 2012 .

[10]  M. Hoelzle,et al.  Application of inventory data for estimating characteristics of and regional climate-change effects on mountain glaciers: a pilot study with the European Alps , 1995, Annals of Glaciology.

[11]  Frank Paul,et al.  On the suitability of the SRTM DEM and ASTER GDEM for the compilation of topographic parameters in glacier inventories , 2012, Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinformation.

[12]  William L. Graf,et al.  The Geomorphology of the Glacial Valley Cross Section , 1970 .

[13]  R. Hock,et al.  Regional and global volumes of glaciers derived from statistical upscaling of glacier inventory data , 2010 .

[14]  A. Bauder,et al.  Modelling runoff from highly glacierized alpine drainage basins in a changing climate , 2008 .

[15]  Nozomu Naito,et al.  Radio echo-sounding through supraglacial debris on Lirung and Khumbu Glaciers, Nepal Himalayas , 2000 .

[16]  F. Paul,et al.  A new glacier inventory on southern Baffin Island, Canada, from ASTER data: II. Data analysis, glacier change and applications , 2009, Annals of Glaciology.

[17]  Samjwal Ratna Bajracharya,et al.  The Status of Glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region , 2011 .

[18]  M. R. van den Broeke,et al.  A Reconciled Estimate of Glacier Contributions to Sea Level Rise: 2003 to 2009 , 2013, Science.

[19]  K. Fujita,et al.  Spatially heterogeneous wastage of Himalayan glaciers , 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[20]  M. Bierkens,et al.  Climate Change Will Affect the Asian Water Towers , 2010, Science.

[21]  D. Jacob,et al.  Representing glaciers in a regional climate model , 2009 .

[22]  A. Jarvis.  Hole-field seamless SRTM data, International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) , 2008 .

[23]  M. Truffer,et al.  Using surface velocities to calculate ice thickness and bed topography: a case study at Columbia Glacier, Alaska, USA , 2012, Journal of Glaciology.

[24]  E. L. Meur,et al.  Disappearance of an Alpine glacier over the 21st Century simulated from modeling its future surface mass balance , 2007 .

[25]  T. Bolch,et al.  The State and Fate of Himalayan Glaciers , 2012, Science.

[26]  Siri Jodha Singh Khalsa,et al.  Challenges and recommendations in mapping of glacier parameters from space: results of the 2008 Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) workshop, Boulder, Colorado, USA , 2009, Annals of Glaciology.

[27]  M. Hoelzle,et al.  The application of glacier inventory data for estimating past climate change effects on mountain glaciers: A comparison between the European Alps and the Southern Alps of New Zealand , 2007 .

[28]  F. Pattyn,et al.  Subglacial topography in the central Sør Rondane mountains, East Antarctica: configuration and morphometric analysis of valley cross profiles , 1995 .

[29]  A. Bauder,et al.  A method to estimate the ice volume and ice-thickness distribution of alpine glaciers , 2009 .

[30]  F. Paul,et al.  Compilation of a glacier inventory for the western Himalayas from satellite data: methods, challenges, and results , 2012 .

[31]  J. Cogley,et al.  Present and future states of Himalaya and Karakoram glaciers , 2011, Annals of Glaciology.

[32]  An assessment of uncertainties in using volume-area modelling for computing the twenty-first century glacier contribution to sea-level change , 2011 .

[33]  Y. Arnaud,et al.  Region-wide glacier mass balances over the Pamir-Karakoram-Himalaya during 1999–2011 , 2013 .

[34]  Y. Arnaud,et al.  Contrasting patterns of early twenty-first-century glacier mass change in the Himalayas , 2012, Nature.

[35]  T. Bolch,et al.  Ice Volume and Subglacial Topography for Western Canadian Glaciers from Mass Balance Fields, Thinning Rates, and a Bed Stress Model , 2013 .

[36]  R. Kaushik,et al.  GROUND PENETRATING RADAR ICE THICKNESS MEASUREMENTS OF DOKRIANI BAMAK (GLACIER), GARHWAL HIMALAYA , 1999 .

[37]  A. Ohmura.  Completing the World Glacier Inventory , 2009, Annals of Glaciology.

[38]  S. Shyam Sunder,et al.  Creep of Polycrystalline Ice , 1990 .

[39]  R. Armstrong,et al.  The Physics of Glaciers , 1981 .

[40]  Kenneth Hewitt,et al.  The Karakoram Anomaly? Glacier Expansion and the ‘Elevation Effect,’ Karakoram Himalaya , 2005 .

[41]  T. Bolch,et al.  The Randolph Glacier inventory: a globally complete inventory of glaciers , 2014 .

[42]  Barclay Kamb,et al.  Stress-Gradient Coupling in Glacier Flow: I. Longitudinal Averaging of the Influence of Ice Thickness and Surface Slope , 1986, Journal of Glaciology.

[43]  E. Isaksson,et al.  An iterative inverse method to estimate basal topography and initialize ice flow models , 2013 .

[44]  Frank Paul,et al.  Modeling of glacier bed topography from glacier outlines, central branch lines, and a DEM , 2012, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..

[45]  Geocryology,et al.  Report on first expedition to glaciers and glacier lakes in the Pumqu (Arun) and Poiqu (Bhote-Sun Kosi) river basins, Xizang (Tibet), China : appendix 1, maps , 1988 .

[46]  Aslak Grinsted,et al.  An estimate of global glacier volume , 2012 .

[47]  A. Ohmura,et al.  Estimation of Alpine glacier water resources and their change since the 1870s , 1990 .

[48]  Matthias Huss,et al.  Distributed ice thickness and volume of all glaciers around the globe , 2012 .

[49]  Harald Svensson.  Is the Cross-Section of a Glacial Valley a Parabola? , 1959 .

[50]  Thomas A. Hennig,et al.  The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission , 2001, Digital Earth Moving.

[51]  P. Chevallier,et al.  From balance to imbalance: a shift in the dynamic behaviour of Chhota Shigri glacier, western Himalaya, India , 2012 .

[52]  Georg Kaser,et al.  Contribution potential of glaciers to water availability in different climate regimes , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[53]  S. Peckham,et al.  The physical basis of glacier volume-area scaling , 1997 .

[54]  Tobias Bolch,et al.  Heterogeneity in glacier response in the upper Shyok valley, northeast Karakoram , 2013 .

[55]  M. Hoelzle,et al.  The Swiss Alps without glaciers – a GIS-based modelling approach for reconstruction of glacier beds , 2009 .

[56]  E. Kang,et al.  The Glacier Inventory of China , 2009, Annals of Glaciology.

[57]  Alexander H. Jarosch,et al.  Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers , 2012 .

[58]  Koji Fujita,et al.  The GAMDAM glacier inventory: a quality-controlled inventory of Asian glaciers , 2014 .

[59]  D. Qin,et al.  An extended “perfect‐plasticity” method for estimating ice thickness along the flow line of mountain glaciers , 2012 .

[60]  M. Huss,et al.  An upper-bound estimate for the accuracy of glacier volume–area scaling , 2013 .

[61]  Frank Paul,et al.  An automatic method to create flow lines for determination of glacier length: A pilot study with Alaskan glaciers , 2013, Comput. Geosci..

[62]  R. Colwell.  Remote sensing of the environment , 1980, Nature.

[63]  F. Paul,et al.  Modeling glacier thickness distribution and bed topography over entire mountain ranges with GlabTop: Application of a fast and robust approach , 2012 .

[64]  Andreas Bauder,et al.  Ice volume distribution and implications on runoff projections in a glacierized catchment , 2012 .

[65]  Walter Silverio,et al.  Glacier changes and climate trends derived from multiple sources in the data scarce Cordillera Vilcanota region, southern Peruvian Andes , 2012 .

[66]  Anthony A. Arendt,et al.  A new method for deriving glacier centerlines applied to glaciers in Alaska and northwest Canada , 2013 .

[67]  Evan Miles,et al.  Regional and global projections of twenty-first century glacier mass changes in response to climate scenarios from global climate models , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[68]  W. Tad Pfeffer,et al.  Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise , 2012, Nature.