Quantitative Area Risk Analysis: Available Tools and Open Problems

Directive 96/82/EC (better known as “Seveso-II” Directive) on the control of major hazards caused by dangerous substances leads to relevant innovations in the safety requirements of process plants, that have a relevant impact on risk management. Among these are the inclusion of substances likely to be formed in the loss of control of chemical processes in site inventory, the evaluation of domino accident hazard, and the requirement of land-use planning criteria. The development of land-use planning (LUP) criteria for the minimisation of the industrial risk to which the population is exposed calls for the application of quantitative area risk analysis (QARA) techniques. However, the QARA techniques currently available are mainly based on the modification of risk analysis techniques originally developed for the major accident risk assessment of single risk sources. Thus, these techniques show important limitations, mainly in the assessment of the effects on the global industrial risk due to the contemporary presence of different risk sources in a narrow area. Therefore, the application of QARA techniques to land use planning in the framework of “Seveso-II” Directive requires the further development of procedures to assess specific problems as the presence of linear risk sources due to the transport of hazardous substances, the release of substances formed in the loss of control of chemical processes, domino accident hazards. This contribution addresses two of the open technological problems that arise in the application of QARA techniques to LUP. The methodologies available and the research needs in the quantitative assessment of domino hazards and of the hazards deriving from the release of dangerous substances formed in the loss of control of chemical processes are discussed. The potential impact on LUP of these hazards is also evidenced, discussing the results of two Italian case studies.

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