TRANS-JAVA HIGHWAY--TRANSPORTATION ECONOMY--NEW ANALYSIS PROCEDURES

Economic analysis of the proposed trans-Java highway, as described in this paper, involves several procedures that have rarely, if ever, been reported in the literature. It includes (a) calculating vehicle running costs on the basis of vehicle speed distribution rather than by using one specific average speed, (b) including the changes in vehicle speeds as a running cost item, (c) estimating highway construction costs and vehicle running costs for segments of the highway rather than for the entire length of the proposed project, (d) calculating rates of return for segments of the proposed highway, (e) calculating the rate of return for each year for each highway segment, (f) using seven classes of vehicles, including separate costs for gasoline- and diesel-fueled vehicles, (g) making the complete analysis for six levels of design (traffic service) as contrasted to use of one design, and (h) applying the analysis to the network of existing highways affected by the trans-Java highway. The analysis is applied to the 237-km west portion and the 284-km east portion. Traffic is much heavier in the west than in the east. The six levels of design for both two- and four-lane basic designs include alternatives of all intersections at grade, major intersections separated, and all intersections separated. Traffic was estimated for 1980 to 1999 yearly for each of the six levels of design and for all existing roads affected. Fifteen percent per year was considered to be the minimum attractive rate of return. Because of increasing traffic volumes, the rates of return increased from a low in 1980 to a high in 1999. The rate of return varied from less than 1 percent to 15 percent depending on the route section, the level of design, and the year. /Author/