New Gradient Approximation Method for Dynamic Origin–Destination Matrix Estimation on Congested Networks

In origin–destination (O-D) estimation methods, the relationship between the link flows and the O-D flows is typically approximated by a linear function described by the assignment matrix that corresponds with the current estimate of the O-D flows. However, this relationship implicitly assumes the link flows to be separable; this assumption leads to biased results in congested networks. The use of a different linear approximation of the relationship between O-D flows and link flows has been suggested to take into account link flows being nonseparable. However, deriving this relationship is cumbersome in terms of computation time. In this paper, the use of marginal computation (MaC) is proposed. MaC is a computationally efficient method that performs a perturbation analysis, with the use of kinematic wave theory principles, to derive this relationship. The use of MaC for dynamic O-D estimation was tested on a study network and on a real network. In both cases the proposed methodology performed better than traditional O-D estimation approaches, and thereby showed its merit.